000 AGXX40 KNHC 300748 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 348 AM EDT SUN OCT 30 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY CLEARED THE ENTIRE BASIN...CURRENTLY STATIONARY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS SW ACROSS THE STRAITS TO THE NE COAST OF YUCATAN. WIND FLOW ACROSS THE GULF REMAINS FROM THE N ACROSS SW PORTIONS...BUT OTHERWISE HAS BACKED TO NE...AND E TO SE ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE PEAKED AND WILL BEGIN A GENERALLY LOWERING TREND NEXT FEW DAYS. A 1900 UTC ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEAS TO 11.5 FT JUST N OF THE YUCATAN COAST WHILE BUOY 42055 WAS 10 FT AT THE TIME. THE BUOY HAS SINCE FALLEN TO 8 FT...WITH SEAS STILL LIKELY 10-12 FT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 00Z GLOBAL MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AT LEAST ACROSS THE GULF...WITH BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIFT N ACROSS THE STRAITS AND YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE SE GULF ALONG 23N WITHIN 24 HOURS WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING INTO A SHEAR LINE...WITH NELY WINDS 20-25 KT AND SEAS 7-9 FT EXPECTED N OF THE SHEARLINE ACROSS THE SE GULF TO ABOUT 27N MON AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRES ACROSS SE U.S. FORCES FRONT S AGAIN AND INTO THE NW CARIB LATE WED. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N THIS MORNING...WITH THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY FROM NEAR 31N71W TO JUST N OF NASSAU BAHAMAS AND CONTINUING JUST S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ACROSS THE STRAITS TO THE NE YUCATAN COAST. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND STRAITS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WHILE NE PORTIONS CONTINUE TO MOVE SE TO NEAR 31N61W BY 00Z...BEFORE SW PORTION OF FRONT BEGINS TO DRIFT N ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT E OF CAPE CANAVERAL MON AFTERNOON AND SHIFT NE ALONG THE FRONT...AHEAD OF NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GULF. DYNAMICS TO ALLOW LOW TO COME IN SYNC WITH DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND BOMB OUT OFF OF HATTERAS TUE...WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND OLD BOUNDARY ONCE AGAIN TO FRESHEN NELY FLOW AND GRADIENT...AND REBUILD SEAS NW OF FRONT TO 8-10 FT. NELY SWELL DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME WILL REFRACT ACROSS LITTLE BAHAMA BANK AND GET INTO SE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS...AND MOVE AGAINST GULF STREAM FOR ENHANCED SEAS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 30N WILL SHIFT NE AND WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB THIS MORNING BECOMING CONFINED TO N OF 15N TONIGHT AND MON. WEAK LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP IN THE SW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AT SOUTHERN END OF TROUGH MEANDERING FROM NW CARIB...AND DRIFT SLOWLY W TOWARD THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA-NICARAGUA THROUGH WED. A LATE SEASON LOW LAT TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 51W WILL MOVE W ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH MON.... WHILE A LOW LEVEL TROUGH N OF 16N MOVES FROM CENTRAL ATLC W ACROSS NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC MON AND MON NIGHT. A BROAD WIND FIELD OF 20-25 KT ACCOMPANIES THIS LLVL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ATTM WITH SEAS BEHIND IT IN EXCESS OF 12 FT. WIND AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT REACHES THE SE N ATLC WATERS LATE TUE...ACROSS THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLC RIDGE...BUT WILL STILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG NELY WIND SWELL AT 10-11 SECS. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING