000 AGXX40 KNHC 290805 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 405 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RINA CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AND HAVE BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE SW TIP OF CUBA. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED TO NEAR APALACHICOLA TO CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N90W TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND HAS BEEN RELOCATED BASED ON RECENT ASCAT PASS AND THOROUGH ANALYSIS. 0308 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT NLY WINDS BEHIND FRONT ACROSS WRN GULF AND ALONG MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS S OF 21N W OF 95W. THIS AREA OF STRONGER WINDS HAS RECENTLY MOVED ACROSS BUOY 42055 WHERE WINDS INCREASED TO 29 KT AND SEAS HAVE JUST RISEN TO 12 FT. PEMEX BUOY BMO IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING 9 FT IN THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE. AS IS TYPICAL IN RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SCENARIOS...THE ECMWF WAVE MODEL IS GENERATING SEAS FASTER THAN WW3 AND AM USING THIS TO NUDGE SEAS UP DIRECTLY BEHIND FRONT. EXCEPT SEAS TO BUILD 13-14 FT ACROSS THE W HALF OF BAY OF CAMPECHE TODAY AS STRONG NLY FLOW CONTINUES. FRONT TO MOVE FROM N CENTRAL FLORIDA TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 12Z THIS MORNING THEN FROM S FLORIDA NEAR THE LAKE TO NW YUCATAN PENINSULA BY 00Z THIS EVENING THEN MEANDER ACROSS THE SE GULF AND S FLORIDA NEXT 24 HOURS. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING N AND NE AHEAD OF FRONT COUPLED WITH COMPLEX DYNAMICS MOVING ACROSS EXTREME SE GULF AND S FLORIDA WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG CONVECTION THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE THIS AREA SHIFTS NE INTO SW N ATLC LATER TODAY. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST NARROW ZONES OF 25-30 KT JUST BEHIND FRONT THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE OROGRAPHICS OFTEN ENHANCE THE NLYS...WITH WINDS THEN VEERING MORE N TO NE AND BEGINNING TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN BY 12 SUN...EXCEPT FOR THE ERN GULF AND SE GULF JUST N OF THE STALLED FRONT...WHERE 20-25 KT WINDS WILL PERSIST. FRONT TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION NEXT FEW DAYS AND MAINTAIN A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE ERN GULF AND SE GULF N OF THE MEANDERING BOUNDARY. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEARING THE GEORGIA COAST AND EXPECTED TO PUSH SE OF GEORGIA AND FAR NE FLORIDA COASTS BY 12Z THIS MORNING. PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF FRONT...AND MOD LEVEL DYNAMICS EJECTED NE FROM RINA CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS S FLORIDA AND EXTREME NW BAHAMAS ATTM AND WILL CONTINUE NE TODAY. A WAVE OR PERTURBATION AT LLVL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MAY INDUCE SLY WINDS TO 25 KT AND HIGHER AS THIS FEATURE AND GENERATED CONVECTION MOVE NE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERE TSTMS POSSIBLE. NW WINDS 20-25 KT EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY VEERING N TO NE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME MODEST DISAGREEMENT IN GLOBAL MODELS PRECISE POSITION OF FRONT NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SE FROM NEAR 31N60W TO FLORIDA KEYS/STRAITS BY SUN EVENING THEN LIFTS N ACROSS THE BAHAMAS SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. UKMET AND ECMWF INDICATING SLOWER N DRIFT OF FRONT AND STRONGER GRADIENT AND WINDS THAN GFS...AND AM GOING WITH A COMPROMISE ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND NW WATERS FOR THIS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RINA LINGERING ALONG SW TIP OF CUBA ATTM WITH WEAKNESS SSE INTO SW CARIB. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE TRAPPED ACROSS THE W CARIB WILL MAINTAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND ACTIVE CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM NW AND FRESH ELY TRADES BUILD W BEYOND 75W AND DIMINISH IN EVOLVING MONSOONAL TROUGH. MODELS SUGGEST THE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A MONSOONAL LOW ACROSS THE SW CARIB NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A WEAKNESS PERSISTING NNW INTO NW CARIB. ELY TRADES NEAR 20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF E HALF OF CARIB WILL WEAKEN LATE SUN AS FRONT REACHES MAX SLY EXTEND ACROSS THE SW N ATLC. LATE SEASON TROPICAL WAVE S OF 10N ALONG 42W EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL S AND MOVE INTO TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE SUN NIGHT-EARLY MON...TO PRODUCE VERY ACTIVE WEATHER. LONG PERIOD NLY SWELL FORECAST BY WW3 TO PEAK ACROSS NE CARIB LAST NIGHT DID NOT PEAK UNTIL THIS PAST EVENING PER BUOY OBS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND TO THE NE. THIS STRONG SWELL WILL AFFECT THE SW N ATLC WATERS AND ADJACENT NE CARIB WATERS THROUGH TODAY BEFORE FADING TONIGHT INTO SUN. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING