000 AGXX40 KNHC 281850 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL DEPRESSION RINA NEAR 21.8N 86.6W WILL MOVE SLOWLY NE IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT THEN REVERSE COURSE AND MOVE S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A REMNANT LOW SAT AND SUN. COLD FRONT IN NW GULF WILL MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING...FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT...STALL FROM S FLORIDA TO YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN...THEN DRIFT N MON. WINDS NW OF FRONT WILL BE N-NW 20 TO 25 KT EXCEPT TO 30 KT W OF 96W. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 12 FT IN SW GULF SAT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ELY WAVE IN W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO FAR SE GULF AHEAD OF FRONT NEXT 24 HOURS...AND MAY ALLOW FOR DEEP CNVTN SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING AS JET DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS FLORIDA. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PUSH FURTHER E TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA. FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO 27N80W SAT...BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN FROM 31N69W TO S FLORIDA SUN...THEN DRIFT N MON. AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR N BAHAMAS MON THEN MOVE NE AND EXIT THE AREA TUE. NE WINDS BEHIND FRONT WILL INTENSIFY THIS WEEKEND TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 12 FT BY MON AS THE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN TUE AND WED. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TROPICAL DEPRESSION RINA NEAR 21.8N 86.6W WILL MOVE SLOWLY NE IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT THEN REVERSE COURSE AND MOVE S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A REMNANT LOW SAT AND SUN. WINDS TO 30 KT AND SEAS TO 11 FT NEAR THE CENTER WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUN AS RINA WEAKENS INTO A REMNANT LOW AND EVENTUALLY IS ABSORBED INTO THE COLD FRONT NOW MAKING ITS WAY SE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AFTER IT PUSHES INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SEAS WILL INCREASE IN NW CORNER N OF 20N W OF 84.5W FROM SWELL BLEEDING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MODELS NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 82W WILL DEVELOP INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN EITHER SAT NIGHT OR SUN...THEN GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TUE WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY. EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND AS A RESULT. TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS MON. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL