000 AGXX40 KNHC 280757 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 355 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT ENTERING NW GULF WATERS ATTM AND WILL MOVE SE ACROSS NW TWO-THIRDS OF GULF BY THIS EVENING. T.S RINA NOW INLAND ACROSS NE TIP OF YUCATAN WITH WIND FIELD OVER W YUCATAN CHANNEL AND AFFECTING VERY SMALL PORTION OF CENTRAL GULF WATERS...WITH SEAS TO 8 FT LIKELY AS FAR N AS 22N. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE S HALF OF THE GULF WITH SEAS 3-5 FT...WITH E TO SE FLOW N OF 24N AHEAD OF FRONT. FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH FROM NEAR NEW ORLEANS TO SW GULF ALONG MEXICAN COAST NEAR 21N97W BY 18Z TODAY AND THEN NEAR PENSACOLA TO ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 00Z...THEN 29N83W TO YUCATAN BY 12Z SAT. ECMWF SOLUTION PREFERRED HERE IN ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING RINA AND FRONTAL PROGRESSION...WITH REMNANTS OF RINA BEING PUSHED BACK TO THE S AND REMAINING IN A WEAKNESS ACROSS THE NW CARIB. WINDS BEHIND FRONT GENERALLY N-NW 20-25 KT EXCEPT 25-30 KT ACROSS W AND SW PORTIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...WHERE SEAS AREA EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 12 FT. FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS EXTREME S FLORIDA SUN MORNING AS SUPPORTING HIGH SHIFTS NE INTO MID ATLC STATES...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT SLOWLY N THROUGH MON. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ELY WAVE IN W CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR SE GULF AND EXTREME S FLORIDA AHEAD OF FRONT NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAY ALLOW FOR DEEP CNVTN AND HEAVY PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING AS JET DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS FLORIDA. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE WASHED OUT ACROSS THE SW N ATLC...WITH RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SUGGESTING A WEAK SHEAR LINE ALONG 23-24N E OF 65W. A WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR NW PORTIONS WITH SLY WINDS TO 15 KT N OF 30N. MODEST MOISTURE S THROUGH SW OF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NW TO N AROUND W PERIPHERY OF ATLC RIDGE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NW BAHAMAS AND WATERS TO N. MEANWHILE TRADES EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT S OF 22N E OF 72W TODAY WITH SEAS BUILDING 6 TO 7 FT. LARGE LONG PERIOD NLY SWELL PROPAGATING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO REACH ISLANDS OF THE NE CARIBBEAN AND IS EXPECTED TO PEAK THIS MORNING WITH COMBINED SEAS 6-7 FT. WINDS TO VEER FURTHER FRI NIGHT AND SAT AND INCREASE 15-20 KT AHEAD OF FRONT...WITH FRONT EXPECTED FROM 31N75W TO NEAR 27N80W BY 00Z SUN. N WINDS 20-25 KT BLAST OFF GEORGIA AND N FL COASTS BEHIND FRONT SAT EVENING THEN QUICKLY VEER NE BY SUN MORNING THEN E TO NE LATE SUN AS FRONT BEGINS TO DRIFT N. SEAS TO BUILD 6 TO 9 FT BEHIND FRONT THROUGH SUN MORNING THEN 7-10 FT BY MON MORNING AS FRONT BEGINS TO DRIFT N AND NE TO E FETCH N OF FRONT LINES UP FOR LONGER FETCH LENGTH. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TROPICAL STORM RINA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...NOW INLAND ACROSS THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN. A 0323 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG THE COAST THERE WHERE SEAS ARE LIKELY TO 12 FT. RINA REMNANTS TO MOVE SLOWLY N TO NNE TODAY BEFORE FEELING APPROACHING GULF OF MEXICO FRONT AND BEING SHUNTED SOUTHWARD BACK INTO THE NW CARIB...IN A WEAKENED STATE. ELY WAVE ACROSS W CARIB INVOF 81/82W WILL MOISTURE THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE NW CARIB AND W THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA NEXT 24 HOURS AND REMAIN ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY OM E SIDE OF WAVE...UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. FRESH TRADES TO BUILD INTO CARIB AND N PORTIONS OF TROPICAL ATLC TODAY BEHIND THIS WAVE AS ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY E. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT EVOLVES FROM THE REMNANTS OF RINA MOVING BACK INTO THE NW CARIB AFTER THIS WAVE DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE AND MAINTAINS A LLVL WEAKNESS ACROSS THE FAR W CARIB. COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIB BUT SOME NLY SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO NW CARIB SUN THROUGH MON WITH SEAS REMAINING BELOW 8 FT...EXCEPT IN THE CURRENT WHERE SWELL WILL OPPOSE THE CURRENT AND BE AMPLIFIED. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ084...TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 22N E OF 88W... .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ082...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 20N W OF 86W... .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING