000 AGXX40 KNHC 151841 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 242 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA NEAR NAPLES TO 25N90W TO 18N94W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE NW GULF...BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND N CENTRAL AMERICA. A 1154 UTC WINDSAT PASS INDICATED 20-30 KT WINDS S OF THE FRONT WITH MAINLY 15-20 KT N OF THE FRONT IN THE NE AND N CENTRAL GULF. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN...DEGENERATING INTO A SHEAR LINE BY MON...THEN LIFTING TO THE NW-N ON TUE. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATE MON THROUGH EARLY TUE AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF TUE MORNING WHEN IT WILL REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER...THEN FROM TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN WED MORNING CLEARING THE GULF LATE WED. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BLAST IN BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AT LEAST 14 FT BY LATE WED. THE 12 UTC GFS STILL HAS STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT (A LARGE AREA OF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS) WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW MAINLY 20-30 KT WINDS. THE OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO SHOWS GALE FORCE WINDS S OF 21N W OF 94W ALTHOUGH THE SREF 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS...WHILE THE GEFS ENSEMBLE 34 KT PROBABILITIES ARE NEAR 0 PERCENT. THUS...WILL CAP WINDS AT 30 KT FOR NOW ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE HIGHER GUSTS GIVEN PLENTIFUL COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND RELATIVELY WARM GULF WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... BROAD LOW PRES REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND N CENTRAL AMERICA WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AS INDICATED BY AN EARLIER WINDSAT PASS. MEANWHILE...COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS OF CUBA...JAMAICA...HAITI...THE NE YUCATAN INCLUDING BELIZE...AND E GUATEMALA CONTINUING TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THESE AREAS. THIS PERSISTENT RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT W-NW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THAT OCCURS WITH A WEAK PRES PATTERN LEFT IN ITS WAKE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT WITH 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT (TO 30 KT NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL) AND SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 12 FT NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IN N SWELL. OTHERWISE...A WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAKENING TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE SE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND WILL DAMPEN THROUGH 24 HOURS... DISSIPATING BY 48 HOURS. A STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE WED...ALSO DAMPENING OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM 31N68W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N79W THEN STATIONARY TO ACROSS S FLORIDA. THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG A LITTLE MORE TO THE SE...THEN WILL STALL BY SUN NIGHT FROM 31N66W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL PERSIST FROM S FLORIDA TO ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...AND TO THE S OVER CUBA AND HAITI. NE TO E TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ALONG 30N. WINDS THEN DIMINISH MON AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE NE. S TO SW WINDS INCREASE OVER THE WATERS N OF 25N LATE TUE INTO WED...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL EMERGE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY WED. FRESH TO STRONG W TO NW WINDS UP TO 25 KT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...AS IT PUSHES E. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE WED. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY