000 AGXX40 KNHC 141730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM TAMPA BAY TO TAMPICO MEXICO WILL SAG S THROUGH SAT...THEN STALL FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE SUN...BEFORE DISSIPATING MON. STRONG E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SE U. S. N OF THE FRONT AND A DEVELOPING BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. E WINDS WILL REACH NEAR GALE FORCE BY SAT...WITH WINDS MORE NW TO N NEAR THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 12-13 FT OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF BY SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY MON AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FURTHER E. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TUE. STRONG N WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE SW GULF TUE AND WED. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 TO 15 FT BY MID-WEEK... WITH HIGHEST SEAS OVER THE SW GULF. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... A COLD FRONT ENTERING NW PORTION FROM 31N79W TO 29N81W WILL PUSH SE THIS EVENING...REACH FROM 31N74W TO S FLORIDA TONIGHT...STALL AND WEAKEN FROM 31N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SAT NIGHT... THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH MON. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 28N AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. E WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA THEN DIMINISH SUN AND MON AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN NW PORTION OF AREA TUE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA N OF 26N WED...AS THE FRONT EMERGES OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST WED AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... CLUSTERS OF STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS PERSIST IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTEROMETER AND BUOY DATA SHOW GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FOR FRESH TRADES NOTED E OF 68W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...CAUSED BY RIDGING OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 71W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH DAMPENS OUT...WHILE WINDS INCREASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AS THE LOW PRES AREA OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DEEPENS. THERE ARE MINOR DISPARITIES BETWEEN GLOBAL MODELS ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE BROAD LOW...BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS NEARLY STATIONARY...WITH A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS AND STRONG E TO SE WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE NW GULF THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL