000 AGXX40 KNHC 140719 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 320 AM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO WILL SAG S THROUGH SAT...THEN STALL FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE SUN...BEFORE DISSIPATING MON. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG E WINDS OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE GULF...BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES N OF THE FRONT...AND A DEVELOPING BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. E WINDS WILL REACH NEAR GALE FORCE BY SAT...WITH WINDS MORE NW TO N NEAR THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 13 FT OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF BY LATE SUN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY MON AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FURTHER E. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF TUE...REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE TUE...AND FROM SW FLORIDA TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE WED. STRONG N WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE SW GULF TUE INTO WED. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 TO 15 FT BY MID WEEK WITH HIGHEST SEAS OVER THE SW GULF. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... A 1010 MB LOW PRES AREA NEAR 29N71W WILL SHIFT NE TOWARD BERMUDA THROUGH THIS MORNING. A LINE OF DIMINISHING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG ROUGHLY 78W WILL SHIFT E AND DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS WELL...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 30N74W TO E CENTRAL FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING...THEN STALLING AND WEAKENING FROM 31N65W TO S FLORIDA BY LATE SAT...BEFORE DISSIPATING SUN INTO MON. WINDS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED N OF 28N BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. E FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE BAHAMAS BY LATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N...THEN DIMINISH SUN INTO MON AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E. E TO SE WINDS WILL INCREASE N OF THE BAHAMAS AND OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST BY STARTING LATE TUE...AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA N OF 26N WED...AS THE FRONT EMERGES OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST BY WED AFTERNOON. SOME DISPARITIES BETWEEN THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS ON THE MOVEMENT CONCERNING THE LOW PRES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A WEAK LOW MOVING AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOWARD TAMPA...AND THE GFS MAINTAING LOW PRES NEAR YUCTAN AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND TSMTS PERSIST OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTEROMETER AND BUOY DATA SHOW GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...ALTHOUGH FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE WINDS ARE ENVELOPING MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING...BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC...AND A WELL DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 72W RELATED TO UPPER TROUGHING OVER 75W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY AS THE TROUGH DAMPENS OUT...AS WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW PRES AREA. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...SOME DISPARITIES BETWEEN THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS ON THE MOVEMENT CONCERNING THE LOW PRES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...BUT THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL FAVOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND TSTSM OVER THE NW GULF INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SE FLOW...POSSIBLY A LITTLE STRONGER NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN