000 AGXX40 KNHC 111822 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 PM EDT TUE OCT 11 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1007 MB LOW PRES ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTLINE HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 26N83W THEN W TO 23N92W. AN ASCAT PASS AT 1505 UTC SHOWED WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW WITH MODERATE 10-15 KT WINDS IN THE NE GULF. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT ON WED. THE PRES PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THU THEN HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT IN THE NE GULF WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF FRI AND SAT. MODERATE NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT NE AND FRESHEN TO 15-20 KT AS THE HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS. GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BY THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ACCELERATE N TO NE WINDS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AS LONG AS THE LOW PRES CENTER REMAINS OVER LAND...TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS IS NOT EXPECTED. BUT THE SITUATION APPEARS QUITE FLUID DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND A STRONG MONSOON TROUGH IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESS NE OF THE REGION AND LOWER PRES OVER N FLORIDA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE SE TO S FLOW OVER NE PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH WED THROUGH FRI. A WEAK TROUGH WILL ENTER NW PORTION OF THE AREA WED NIGHT...THEN A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA FRI. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SE INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND WEAKEN SAT...THEN DISSIPATE SUN. MODERATE W-NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FRI WILL SHIFT NE SAT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE U.S. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... LIGHT TO MODERATE E WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THU NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN TROPICAL ATLC ZONE THU THEN SPREAD W INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRI..THEN DECREASE TO 15 KT SAT AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT DISRUPTS THE RIDGE N OF THE REGION. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL