000 AGXX40 KNHC 080728 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 225 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG ATLC HIGH TO THE E AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SE GULF IS CURRENTLY RESULTING IN NE-E WINDS OF 20-30 KT OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF N OF 27N AS SUGGESTED BY A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 0342 UTC LAST NIGHT. LIGHTER SE WINDS OF 20 KT ARE NOTED IN THE NW GULF AS REPORTED BY OIL RIG PLATFORMS AND BUOYS THROUGHOUT. S OF 27N NE-E 20 KT WINDS ARE EVIDENT E OF 92W...WHILE E WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE W OF 92W. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 5-8 FT E OF 92W...4-7 FT N OF 25N W OF 92W AND 2-4 FT S OF 25N W OF 92W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF S OF 27N ON THE SE SECTION OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE ATLC HIGH IN COMBINATION WITH LOW PRES EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG E WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN ZONE WITH A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF GUSTS TO GALE FORCE THERE. AS THE LOW...ONCE IT FORMS...MOVES NWD THROUGH MON THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF INTO WED. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... THE 0600 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR 24N65W SW TO HAITI AND TO 16N75W...WHILE A STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGING REMAINS PRESENT TO THE N OF 24N. HE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH IS ALLOWING FOR NE-E WINDS OF 20-30 KT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 24N AS SUGGESTED BY AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0200 UTC LATE LAST NIGHT. S OF 24N WINDS ARE NE 20 KT W OF THE BAHAMAS...AND E-SE 10-15 KT E OF THE BAHAMAS. BUOYS OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH A SHIP OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING HIGH SEA STATE IN THE RANGE OF 9-13 FT N OF 26N...AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT ELSEWHERE W OF 69W. SEAS ARE LOWER S OF 26N BETWEEN 65W-69W WHERE THE RANGE IS OF 3-5 FT. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH SUN. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DISPARITY ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF LOW PRES THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE TROUGH. THE GFS AND CMC MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT LOW PRES FORMS ALONG THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND TRACKS NW TOWARDS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH LATE MON. THIS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER TO THE W WITH FORMATION OF THE LOW PRES WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A LOW NEAR WESTERN CUBA SUN...AND TAKING IT N INTO THE MIDDLE OR EASTERN GULF MON AND TUE BEFORE EXITING THE FAR NE GULF EARLY ON WED. THE UKMET SOLN IS SIMILAR AS WELL WITH DEVELOPING A LOW NEAR WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT...AND TAKING IT NW AND THEN N ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF BEFORE TURNING IT NE TO OVER NE FLORIDA BY EARLY WED. THE REGIONAL NAM HAS A LIKEWISE SIMILAR SOLN...BUT IS MUCH DEEPER WITH THE PRES OF THE LOW. IT APPEARS THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER WITH FORMING THE LOW MUCH FURTHER TO THE E THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS SOLN FOR THIS FORECAST AS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...DEEP MOISTURE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FROM THE SE GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD TO MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE INCIPIENT PLAYER IN ACTIVATING GENESIS FOR THE LOW THAT IS TO FORM. THE LOW SHOULD REACH THE WATERS OFFSHORE NE FLORIDA BY MON WITH THE GALE FORCE WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVER THE NW WATERS BY LATE MON. WILL KEEP SIMILAR WORDING OF GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE SAT NIGHT FOR N OF 27N AND W OF 75W...AND INTO MON AS HIGHLIGHTED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. BASED ON THE MEAN GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT GALE WINDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS W OF 75W THROUGH MOST OF MON. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 7N-22N BETWEEN 55W-65W... WITH ALL OF THE STRONG GRADIENT TAKING PLACE OVER THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE SW N ATLC...A PREVAILING LIGHT GRADIENT THROUGH THESE AREAS IS RESULTING IN ELY TRADES OF THE 10-15 KT RANGE ...EXCEPT PULSING TO 15-20 KT ALONG COAST OF S AMERICA INTO EARLY MON DUE TO THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOWER PRES OVER S AMERICA AND SLIGHTER HIGH PRES TO THE N OF THERE. THESE WINDS EXPAND NW OVER THE WATERS NEAR JAMAICA SUN AND MON BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT TUE. E WINDS OF 15-20 KT BECOME EVIDENT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 11N-15N SUN THROUGH MON...THEN TO S OF 14N TUE AND WED WITH SEAS THERE BUILDING TO 5-8 FT. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY MON N OF 27N W OF 75W... FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE