000 AGXX40 KNHC 070730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 225 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG ATLC HIGH TO THE E AND LOW PRES TO THE S IS ALLOWING FOR NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT TO OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND NW GULF PORTIONS N OF 25N AS WAS SHOWN IN AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0222 UTC LAST NIGHT AS WELL BY THE ARRAY OF OIL RIG PLATFORMS SCATTERED THROUGHOUT AND BY BUOYS 42002 AND 42001. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT N OF 25N...AND 2-4 FT S OF 25N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE INCREASING OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. THE ATLC HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE FLORIDA E COAST. AS A RESULT ...THE NE-E WINDS MAINLY IN THE EASTERN GULF ZONE N OF 27N ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO GALE FORCE THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHTER S OF ABOUT 26N THROUGH TUE. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... A WEAKENING TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM BAHAMAS TO NW CUBA WHILE STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC. ALREADY...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH HAS SIGNIFICANTLY TO ALLOW FOR NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 70W AS SUGGESTED BY AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0222 UTC LATE LAST NIGHT. BUOYS THROUGHOUT ALONG WITH A SHIP OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING BUILDING SEAS OF 8-10 FT N OF ABOUT 28N AND W OF 76W...AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT ELSEWHERE W OF 69W. NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT HAVE FILTERED THROUGH THE BAHAMA PASSAGES...AND NOW REACH TO ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE KEYS AS WELL AS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AGAINST COUNTER CURRENT FLOW. E OF 69W THE GRADIENT IS LIGHTER AS HURRICANE PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. LIGHTER NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE OBSERVED FROM 24N-28N...AND NE 20 KT WINDS ARE N OF 28N. TO THE S OF 24N WINDS VEER SHARPLY TO THE SE-S AT 10 KT AS SEEN BY BUOY 41043 AT 21N65W...AND SHIP "OXKO2" AT 21.5N62W. SEAS E OF 69W ARE 6-9 FT IN A N SWELL TO THE N OF 26N...AND 3-5 FT S OF 26N. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS S AND CENTRAL FLORIDA FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...THE NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT FRI THROUGH SAT...THEN INTO THE GALE FORE RANGE SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN QUITE DISPERSE ON EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF LOW PRES THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE TROUGH. THE GFS AND CMC MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT LOW PRES FORM ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR OR OVER THE SE BAHAMAS SAT AND TRACKS NW TOWARDS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA SUN THROUGH TUE. THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER TO THE W WITH FORMATION OF THE LOW PRES WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A LOW NEAR WESTERN CUBA SUN...AND TAKING IT NW AND N INTO THE MIDDLE OR EASTERN GULF MON AND TUE. THE UKMET IS SIMILAR...BUT TAKES THE LOW FURTHER E ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO MON AND TUE. THIS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE NOGAPS. THE REGIONAL NAM HAS A LIKEWISE SIMILAR SOLN. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS SOLN FOR THIS FORECAST AS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ...DEEP MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AND IS INCREASING OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND WESTERN BAHAMAS OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE INCIPIENT PLAYER IN ACTIVATING GENESIS FOR THE LOW THAT IS TO FORM. THE LOW SHOULD REACH THE WATERS OFFSHORE NE FLORIDA BY TUE WITH THE TIGHT GALE FORCE WINDS ALREADY HAVING SHIFTED N OF 31N. WILL STICK CLOSE WITH PREVIOUS WORDING OF GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE SAT NIGHT FOR N OF 27N AND W OF 75W...AND INTO MON. BASED ON THE MEAN GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE... IT APPEARS THAT GALE WINDS SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED IN THE FORECAST WATERS PRIOR TO PULLING TO THE N OF 31N. SEAS MAY BE TWEAKED A NOTCH OR TWO BELOW OF THOSE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 7N-22N BETWEEN 55W-65W... WITH ALL OF THE STRONG GRADIENT TAKING PLACE OVER THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE SW N ATLC...A PREVAILING LIGHT GRADIENT THROUGH THESE AREAS IS RESULTING IN ELY TRADES OF THE 10-15 KT RANGE ...EXCEPT PULSING TO 15-20 KT ALONG COAST OF S AMERICA THROUGH FRI ALLOWED BY THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOWER PRES OVER S AMERICA AND SLIGHTER HIGH PRES TO THE N OF THERE. BY FRI NIGHT THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT...SPREADING NW OVER THE WATERS NEAR JAMAICA SUN AND MON BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT TUE. E-SE WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON N OF 27N W OF 75W... FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE 000 AGXX40 KNHC 070730 RRA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 225 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG ATLC HIGH TO THE E AND LOW PRES TO THE S IS ALLOWING FOR NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT TO OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND NW GULF PORTIONS N OF 25N AS WAS SHOWN IN AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0222 UTC LAST NIGHT AS WELL BY THE ARRAY OF OIL RIG PLATFORMS SCATTERED THROUGHOUT AND BY BUOYS 42002 AND 42001. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT N OF 25N...AND 2-4 FT S OF 25N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE INCREASING OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. THE ATLC HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE FLORIDA E COAST. AS A RESULT ...THE NE-E WINDS MAINLY IN THE EASTERN GULF ZONE N OF 27N ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO GALE FORCE THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHTER S OF ABOUT 26N THROUGH TUE. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... A WEAKENING TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM BAHAMAS TO NW CUBA WHILE STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC. ALREADY...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH HAS SIGNIFICANTLY TO ALLOW FOR NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 70W AS SUGGESTED BY AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0222 UTC LATE LAST NIGHT. BUOYS THROUGHOUT ALONG WITH A SHIP OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING BUILDING SEAS OF 8-10 FT N OF ABOUT 28N AND W OF 76W...AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT ELSEWHERE W OF 69W. NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT HAVE FILTERED THROUGH THE BAHAMA PASSAGES...AND NOW REACH TO ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE KEYS AS WELL AS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AGAINST COUNTER CURRENT FLOW. E OF 69W THE GRADIENT IS LIGHTER AS HURRICANE PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. LIGHTER NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE OBSERVED FROM 24N-28N...AND NE 20 KT WINDS ARE N OF 28N. TO THE S OF 24N WINDS VEER SHARPLY TO THE SE-S AT 10 KT AS SEEN BY BUOY 41043 AT 21N65W...AND SHIP "OXKO2" AT 21.5N62W. SEAS E OF 69W ARE 6-9 FT IN A N SWELL TO THE N OF 26N...AND 3-5 FT S OF 26N. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS S AND CENTRAL FLORIDA FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...THE NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT FRI THROUGH SAT...THEN INTO THE GALE FORE RANGE SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN QUITE DISPERSE ON EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF LOW PRES THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE TROUGH. THE GFS AND CMC MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT LOW PRES FORM ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR OR OVER THE SE BAHAMAS SAT AND TRACKS NW TOWARDS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA SUN THROUGH TUE. THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER TO THE W WITH FORMATION OF THE LOW PRES WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A LOW NEAR WESTERN CUBA SUN...AND TAKING IT NW AND N INTO THE MIDDLE OR EASTERN GULF MON AND TUE. THE UKMET IS SIMILAR...BUT TAKES THE LOW FURTHER E ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO MON AND TUE. THIS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE NOGAPS. THE REGIONAL NAM HAS A LIKEWISE SIMILAR SOLN. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS SOLN FOR THIS FORECAST AS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ...DEEP MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AND IS INCREASING OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND WESTERN BAHAMAS OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE INCIPIENT PLAYER IN ACTIVATING GENESIS FOR THE LOW THAT IS TO FORM. THE LOW SHOULD REACH THE WATERS OFFSHORE NE FLORIDA BY TUE WITH THE TIGHT GALE FORCE WINDS ALREADY HAVING SHIFTED N OF 31N. WILL STICK CLOSE WITH PREVIOUS WORDING OF GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE SAT NIGHT FOR N OF 27N AND W OF 75W...AND INTO MON. BASED ON THE MEAN GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE... IT APPEARS THAT GALE WINDS SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED IN THE FORECAST WATERS PRIOR TO PULLING TO THE N OF 31N. SEAS MAY BE TWEAKED A NOTCH OR TWO BELOW OF THOSE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 7N-22N BETWEEN 55W-65W... WITH ALL OF THE STRONG GRADIENT TAKING PLACE OVER THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE SW N ATLC...A PREVAILING LIGHT GRADIENT THROUGH THESE AREAS IS RESULTING IN ELY TRADES OF THE 10-15 KT RANGE ...EXCEPT PULSING TO 15-20 KT ALONG COAST OF S AMERICA THROUGH FRI ALLOWED BY THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOWER PRES OVER S AMERICA AND SLIGHTER HIGH PRES TO THE N OF THERE. BY FRI NIGHT THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT...SPREADING NW OVER THE WATERS NEAR JAMAICA SUN AND MON BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT TUE. E-SE WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON N OF 27N W OF 75W... FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE