000 AGXX40 KNHC 060618 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... CURRENTLY NE-E WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE N AND SE GULF...EXCEPT 20-25 KT ON ELEVATED PLATFORMS NW WATERS...AND N-NE 10-15 KT SW GULF. THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WINDS INCREASE TO NE-E 20-25 KT OVER THE NE GULF FRI...AND E AT 20 KT ELSEWHERE E OF 90W...SE 15-20 KT OVER THE NW WESTERN...AND E-SE 10-15 KT IN SW ZONE. NOTE THAT GUIDANCE IS DELAYING THE ONSET ON THE INCREASE TO 20-25 KT LATEST MODEL RUN BUT STILL SUGGESTS WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE OVER NE PORTION ON SAT TO 20-30 KT. THE FIRST OF A SERIES ON INVERTED TROUGHS MOVES W THROUGH THE SE WATERS AROUND SUNSET SAT AND THE SECOND EARLY SUN NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT NE TO E WIND SHIFT AT 15...PERHAPS 20 KT. UNCERTAINTY BEGINS SUN WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL STRAITS. THE GFS INDICATES THE LOW WILL FORM IN THE NW BAHAMAS WHILE OTHER MODELS SUGGEST ALONG THE NW COAST OF CUBA. WILL GO WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROUGH...AND NE-SE WIND SHIFT TILL WE GET A HANDLE ON LOW PRES FORMATION. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... THE BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N60W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE FL STRAITS. TROPICAL CYCLONE PHILIPPE NEAR 26N61W HAS BEGUN TO MOVE N IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH AND WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NE ALONG THE FRONTAL TROUGH AND STRENGTHEN TO A MINIMAL HURRICANE NEAR 28.5N58.8W AROUND SUNSET TODAY. IN THE MEANTIME... NE FLOW AT 20-25 KT NW OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KT ALL WATERS N OF 26N LATE FRI AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUN. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW DEVELOPMENT AND BUILDS A GALE LOW MOVING N THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS SUN NIGHT REACHING THE GA/SC BORDER AROUND SUNRISE TUE. IN ANY EVENT WINDS WILL BE STRONG INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 7N-22N BETWEEN 55W-65W... EASTERLY TRADES IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE...EXCEPT PULSING TO 15-20 KT ALONG COAST OF S AMERICA THROUGH FRI. GRADIENT TIGHTENS FRI NIGHT AND WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT...SPREADING NW OVER THE WATERS NEAR JAMAICA SUN. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON