000 AGXX40 KNHC 051800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT WED OCT 04 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... CURRENTLY NE-E WINDS 10-15 KT OVER W GULF AND 15-20 KT OVER THE E HALF. THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WINDS INCREASE NE-E 20-25 KT OVER THE NE GULF THU NIGHT...E AT 20 KT ELSEWHERE E OF 90W AND SE 15-20 KT OVER THE NW WESTERN...AND E-SE 10-15 KT IN SW ZONE. ELY WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER ALL NORTHERN GULF AND 15-20 KT OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF LATE FRI. WINDS FURTHER INCREASE OVER NE PORTION ON SAT TO 20-30 KT. MODELS DEVELOP A LOW ALONG A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC SUN AND MOVES N ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS...THIS WILL KEEP BRISK WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 29N65W TO NW CUBA. THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND FL STRAITS FRI AND SAT WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING SUN THEN MOVE N ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS SUN AND MON. BOTH THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT. IN ANY EVENT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE HONKING FROM NE-E ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CURRENT FRONT WILL CONTINUE A LITTLE FURTHER E TODAY WITH TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE MERGING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE STORM THEN LIFTING OUT TO THE NE LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND HIGH PRES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL TIGHTEN WITH NE WINDS 15-20 KT...SEAS 6-8 FT...TONIGHT OVER AND W OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE WATERS N OF 27N. GRADIENT FURTHER TIGHTENS WITH 20-25 KT OVER WATERS N OF 25N AND THROUGHOUT W BAHAMAS EARLY FRI...AND 25-30 KT N OF 27N FRI NIGHT AND SAT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME SAT NIGHT INTO MON. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 7N-22N BETWEEN 55W-65W... EASTERLY TRADES IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER DGS