000 AGXX40 KNHC 050610 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 AM EDT WED OCT 04 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... CURRENTLY...NE-E WINDS 10-15 KT OVER W GULF WATERS AND 15-20 KT OVER THE E HALF. CONTINUALLY TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THE LOW FLOW TO NE-E 20-25 KT OVER THE NE WATERS THU NIGHT...E AT 20 KT ELSEWHERE E OF 90W...SE 15-20 KT OVER THE NW WATERS...AND E-SE 10-15 KT IN SW ZONE. BY FRI NIGHT E WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER ALL NORTHERN WATERS AND 15-20 KT OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF. WINDS FURTHER INCREASE OVER NE PORTION ON SAT TO 20-30 KT. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS A LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG A WESTWARD MOVING TROUGH... WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE SE WATERS AS EARLY AS SUNSET SAT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA TO NW CUBA. STILL EXPECT THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT TO WASH OUT. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A COUPLE OF INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND FL STRAITS FRI AND SAT...WITH HINT OF LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS SUNSET SAT IN THE FL STRAITS AND NW BAHAMAS AREA. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TRACK OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW...BOTH THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT. IN ANY EVENT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE HONKING FROM NE-E ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CURRENT FRONT WILL CONTINUE A LITTLE FURTHER E TODAY...WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE PHILIPPE MERGING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE CYCLONE THEN LIFTING OUT TO THE NE LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND HIGH PRES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL TIGHTEN WITH NE WINDS 15-20 KT...SEAS 6-8 FT...TONIGHT OVER AND W OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE WATERS N OF 27N. GRADIENT FURTHER TIGHTENS WITH 20-25 KT OVER WATERS N OF 25N AND THROUGHOUT W BAHAMAS EARLY FRI...AND 25-30 KT N OF 27N FRI NIGHT AND SAT. THE GRADIENT SEEMS TO RELAX SOME SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WITH GUIDANCE THEREAFTER DIFFERING AS DEVELOPING LOW ENTERS THE PICTURE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 7N-22N BETWEEN 55W-65W... EASTERLY TRADES IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON