000 AGXX40 KNHC 030557 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A FRONTAL TROUGH...CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT A LITTLE FURTHER SE TODAY. NE WINDS AT 15-20 KT AND SEAS TO 7 FT CONTINUE OVER THE E GULF IN WAKE OF FRONT...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT PERSIST ALONG W COAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA TILL LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS ON TUE WITH NE WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING AGAIN TO 20 KT...BUILDING SEAS TO 7 FT...OVER THE SE WATERS...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING W ACROSS THE S CENTRAL GULF WATERS TUE NIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT FURTHER TIGHTENS ON WED AND THU...WITH E WINDS AT 20 KT SPREADING WA ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND COVERING THE ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF...THEN INCREASING TO 20-25 KT THU NIGHT. RETURN FLOW SETS UP AT 15 KT OVER THE NW ZONE THU...INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ON FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DIP INTO AND STALL OVER THE EXTREME NW WATERS TODAY WITH A NE TO E WIND SHIFT AT 15 KT ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH MIDDAY TUE. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PARENT COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE FURTHER E OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC WITH A BROAD WEAKENING BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL CUBA. EASTERLY TRADES IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE EXTEND ACROSS THE E AND S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ENHANCED TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO RELAX...10-15 KT...OVER SE CARIBBEAN ON TUE...WITH CONDITIONS SPREADING W TO ALL WATERS TUE NIGHT...THEN LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH FRI. TROPICAL N ATLC AND SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA TO THE CAY SAL BANK WHERE IT IS DISSIPATING. THE NORTH SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER E THROUGH TUE NIGHT. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL MERGE WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE PHILIPPE ON WED. PHILIPPE WILL MOVE NE WED NIGHT DRAGGING THE FRONTAL REMNANTS E ACROSS THE SE WATERS THU INTO FRI AS A WEAK COLD FRONT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH N TO NE WINDS 15-20 KT DOMINATING MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS BY MIDDAY THU...INCREASING TO 20-25 KT OVER THE ATLC WATERS N OF 27N TO THE W OF 63W BY MIDDAY FRI. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON