000 AGXX40 KNHC 021838 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE FL STRAITS TO THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE...WILL MOVE SE OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN WAKE OF FRONT WINDS ARE NE 15-20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT...MOSTLY IN CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS AREA FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY MON. HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS ON TUE WITH NE WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 20 KT...SEAS TO 7 FT...SPREADING W ACROSS THE SE AND S CENTRAL GULF WATERS LATE TUE. THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS WED AND THU...WITH E WINDS 20 KT BLOWING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 25 KT LATE THU AS A 1035 MB HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE NE CONUS. RETURN FLOW SETS UP AT 15 KT OVER THE NW ZONE BY THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL THERE MON AND TUE AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. NOTE THAT GUIDANCE FLUCTUATES ON EACH MODEL RUN CONCERNING THE E EXTENT OF THE FRONTAL PROGRESS. NOW SEEMS LIKE SOUTHERN PORTION OF FRONT WILL BREAK OFF OVER NW CARIBBEAN AND REMAIN AS A TROUGH THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE NORTHERN PORTION WILL CONTINUE FURTHER E OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC. EXPECT NE FLOW TO INCREASE TO 15 KT IN THE VICINITY YUCATAN CHANNEL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 6 FT. EASTERLY TRADES IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD W TO ALONG 77W TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX OVER SE CARIBBEAN ON TUE...SPREADING W TO ALL WATERS TUE NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THU. TROPICAL N ATLC AND SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N68W TO THE NW BAHAMAS WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE STRAIT OF FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER E THROUGH TUE NIGHT. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL MERGE WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE PHILIPPE ON WED. PHILIPPE WILL MOVE NE WED NIGHT DRAGGING THE FRONTAL REMNANTS E ACROSS THE SE WATERS THU. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH N TO NE WINDS 15-20 KT DOMINATING MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS BY WED. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES AND PHILIPPE WILL FURTHER INCREASE WINDS TO 25 KT BY THU. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR