000 AGXX40 KNHC 020614 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE FL STRAITS TO THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE...WILL MOVE SE OF AREA THIS MORNING. IN WAKE OF FRONT WINDS ARE NE 15-20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT...MOSTLY IN CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY SUNRISE MON AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 6 FT...MAINLY IN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY MIDDAY MON. HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS ON TUE WITH NE WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 20 KT...SEAS TO 7 FT...SPREADING W ACROSS THE SE AND S CENTRAL GULF WATERS LATE TUE. THE GRADIENT RELAXES WED AND THU...WITH ONLY THE EXTREME SE WATERS STILL AT NE 15-20 KT...WHILE RETURN FLOW SETS UP AT 10 KT OVER THE NW ZONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING THEN STALL FROM E CUBA TO CENTRAL GULF OF HONDURAS LATE TONIGHT. NOTE THAT GUIDANCE FLUCTUATES ON EACH MODEL RUN CONCERNING THE E EXTENT OF THE FRONTAL PROGRESS. SEEMS LIKE SOUTHERN PORTION OF FRONT WILL BREAK OFF OVER NW CARIBBEAN WHILE THE PORTION N OF CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE FURTHER E. EXPECT NE FLOW TO INCREASE TO 15 KT IN THE VICINITY YUCATAN CHANNEL TODAY...THEN DIMINISH TO 10 KT TONIGHT. EASTERLY TRADES IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD W TO ALONG 77W TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX OVER SE CARIBBEAN ON TUE...SPREADING W TO ALL WATERS TUE NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THU. TROPICAL N ATLC AND SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 31N71W TO FL STRAITS WILL REACH FROM 31N66W TO E CUBA LATE TONIGHT...THEN STALL NEAR BERMUDA WITH THE SOUTHERLY PORTION DRIFTING W OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AS TROPICAL CYCLONE PHILIPPE MOVES TO ALONG 55W AROUND SUNRISE MON. PHILIP WILL TURN N AND MERGE WITH THE FRONTAL TROUGH LATE TUE... TRACKING NE ALONG THE FRONTAL TROUGH WED AND THU WHILE DRAGGING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF FRONTAL TROUGH E AS NEW COLD FRONT ALONG 22N. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON