000 AGXX40 KNHC 290620 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2011 UPDATED WARNINGS AND THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W SECTIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA. MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1013 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N90W WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN FRI AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF FRI NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM TAMPA BAY TO SE TEXAS SAT THEN STALL FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN. STRONG HIGH PRE WILL BUILD BEHIND FRONT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. THE WINDS DECREASE SOME ON MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... HIGH PRES JUST N OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH AND MOVE TO THE NE FRI AND SAT...AS T.S. OPHELIA MOVES N AND INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE BUT WILL STAY E OF 65W. SWELL OF 8 TO 12 FT GENERATED BY OPHELIA WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY N OF 25N W OF 68W FRI THROUGH SAT THEN SUBSIDE SUN AS OPHELIA MOVES FURTHER N AND E. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST FRI AND EXTEND FROM 31N77W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA FRI EVENING. A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND MERGE WITH THE FIRST AND EXTEND FROM 31N71W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SAT THEN WEAKEN FROM 31N65W TO SE BAHAMAS SUN. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA MON. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA NEAR 19.4N 60.7W 995 MB MOVING NW 5 KT WITH WINDS 50 KT GUST TO 60 KT. OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO 21.9 62.0W TONIGHT THEN INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE N OF THE AREA NEAR 23.7N 62.8W FRI. OTHERWISE A WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MON...HOWEVER TRADES MAY INCREASE TO 20 KT ALONG THE COAST S AMERICA. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 18N BETWEEN 59W AND 64W...AMZ087. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER DGS