000 AGXX40 KNHC 281901 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011 UPDATED WARNINGS AND THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W SECTIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA. MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N90W WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THU...THEN WEAKEN AND SHIFT S FRI AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BY EARLY FRI...BUT A STRONGER REINFORCING FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE COMBINED FRONT REACHING FROM S FLORIDA THROUGH 25N90W IN THE S CENTRAL GULF...THEN TO THE FAR SW GULF BY EARLY SAT. NE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT...AND FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OFF THE VERACRUZ COAST BY EARLY SAT AS THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... HIGH PRES JUST N OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THU AND MOVE TO THE NE FRI AND SAT...AS T.S. OPHELIA MOVES DUE N...GENERALLY STAYING E OF 65W. ASSOCIATED SWELL OF 8 TO 12 FT WILL PUSH W OF 65W BY FRI AS FAR AS 68W N OF 25N. T.S. OPHELIA WILL MOVE N OF 31N BY EARLY SAT. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FRI INTO SAT...FOLLOWED BY FRESH NW FLOW. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY MON. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA NEAR 18.7N 59.9W 1002 MB MOVING NW 3 KT. OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NW TO NEAR 19.5N 60.5W THIS EVENING...TO 20.9N 61.1W THU MORNING...THEN N OF AREA TO 22.5N 61.8W THU EVENING. OTHERWISE...A WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MON. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 17N E OF 62W...AMZ087. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN