000 AGXX40 KNHC 261858 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE FLORIDA SW TO NEAR 25N87W. BOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NWS RADAR IMAGERY SHOW NUMEROUS TSTM ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE SE PART OF THE GULF MOVING OFF TO THE E ACROSS S AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH TUE NIGHT OR WED. LATEST NE GULF BUOY REPORTS SHOW W-NW WINDS OF 51- KT N OF THE TROUGH...WHILE SW-W WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE EVIDENT SE OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY TUE. A WEAK PRES PATTERN REMAINS PRESENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SEAS OF 1-2 FT OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. THE EXCEPTION IS THE FAR WESTERN WATERS N OF 25N W OF 94W WHERE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT INDUCED BY LOW PRES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS INDUCING ONSHORE FLOW CONSISTING OF S-SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT. AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS THROUGH TUE NIGHT...WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT. SEAS IN THAT PORTION OF THE GULF HAVE BUILD TO 4-6 FT...BUT WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT TUE...AND 1-2 FT WED THROUGH SAT. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL THEN SETTLE IN OVER THE NW GULF THROUGH FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW GULF EARLY FRI AND QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN GULF BY SAT FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRES WITH N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND NW GULF ZONE FRI AND SAT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY 1021 HIGH LOCATED JUST SW OF BERMUDA WITH A RIDGE SE TO THE NW BAHAMAS. A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG THE SE U.S. COAST TO NEAR NE FLORIDA. FROM 31N78W S TO 25N78W...AND THEN SE TO 21N77W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS W OF OF 77W. BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM ACROSS THE AREA SHOW NE-E 15 KT WINDS S AND SE OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT NE 20 KT WINDS IN THE FAR SE PORTION AND SE TO S WINDS 10-15 KT W OF THE RIDGE. BUOY REPORTS ALONG WITH A FEW OBSERVATIONS AND EVEN A AN ALTIMETER FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOW SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE E OF THE BAHAMAS... EXCEPT S OF 25N WHERE HIGHER SEAS OF 6-8 FT DUE TO A N SWELL ARE NOTED. SEAS N OF 27N W OF 78W ARE 3-5 FT IN A N SWELL...BUT WILL BUILD TO 4-7 FT TONIGHT AS A BATCH OF SE SWELLS ARRIVES AND MIXES IN WITH THE NLY SWELL. SEAS W OF THE BAHAMAS ARE 2-3 FT. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH FRI AS THE REMNANT LOW TRACKS MORE TO THE N AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NE. AS THIS HAPPENS...A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE FAR NW WATERS FRI...AND MOVE TO NEAR A LINE FROM NEAR 31N74W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY SAT AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK BY THEN...OR EVEN PERHAPS BE MORE OF A TROUGH. WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT WITH A WINDS SHIFT FROM SLY TO NW-N ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. THE REMNANT LOW OF WHAT WAS RECENTLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY SE OF THE AREA IN THE NW TROPICAL N ATLC NEAR 19N59W AS 1011 MB MOVING SLOWLY NW. IT IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FAR SE BOUNDARY OF THE AREA THU OR FRI...THEN TURN MORE TO THE N AND PASS TO JUST E OF THE ZONE VERY NEAR 65W LATE FRI AND SAT POSSIBLY REACHING TO NEAR 27N OR 28N BY LATE SAT. THE LOW MAY VERY BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IF THE LOW DOES INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WINDS SEAS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE THU THROUGH SAT. OF COURSE THE IMPACTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT IF THE LOW MOVES FURTHER WEST INTO THE ZONE OR ALONG 65W DURING THU THROUGH SAT. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS AND LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THE LOW AND ITS FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS ANALYZED NEAR 19N59W 1011 MB AT 1800 UTC THIS AFTERNOON. 20-25 KT WINDS ARE CONFINED TO WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT ...AND NE TO E 20 KT ELSEWHERE FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W NE-E 20 KT WINDS ARE NOTED. SEAS OF 6-9 FT ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NW QUADRANT OF LOW...AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT ELSEWHERE N OF 18N. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS CONTINUES TO LAG BEHIND THE LOW FROM 15N TO 21N. HIGHER WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY. AN ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1330 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED RELATIVELY LIGHT E-SE WINDS S OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY...AND ELSEWHERE S OF 18N. THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 19N60W BY EARLY TUE...TO NEAR 20N62W EARLY WED...AND TO JUST NW OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE THU. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND EVEN THE REGIONAL NAM SUGGEST THAT THE LOW MAY STRENGTHEN AGAIN INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...PENDING MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. SO WILL AWAIT UPDATED SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL DATA TO SEE IF MAJOR CHANGES ARE REQUIRED WITH RESPECT TO WINDS AND SEAS WITH THE LOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC BY WED MORNING AND REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI BUOYS 41043 AT 21N65W AND 41044 AT 22N59W ARE SHOWING COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT DUE TO A N SWELL. THESE SWELLS WILL LINGER OVER THE NW PORTION THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FT. OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOYS 41101 AT 15N56W AND BUOY 41040 AT 14N53W SHOW MUCH LOWERS SEAS OF 2-4 FT UNDER THE LIGHT WINDS. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY E OF THE AREA NEAR 46W MOVING W AT 10 KT WILL REACH TO NEAR 50W TUE MORNING...AND ENTER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC WED MORNING AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU THROUGH SAT. ONLY A SLIGHT SHIFT OF LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED WITH THE WAVE AS IT ENTERS THE ZONES. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE