000
AGXX40 KNHC 210750
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
350 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2011

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK HIGH PRES OVER NORTHERN GULF MAINTAINS FLAT PRES PATTERN 
WITH LIGHT BREEZE AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF BASIN 
THROUGH FRI.  WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH NE GULF LATE FRI THEN 
STALL ALONG W COAST OF FLORIDA OVER WEEKEND.

SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 31N KEEP MODERATE ELY BREEZE ACROSS MOST 
OF ZONE THROUGH THU.  WINDS BECOME A FRESH BREEZE OVER FAR SE 
PORTION OF AREA AS LOW PRES MOVES CLOSER TO 65W.  LOW PRES MOVES 
INTO EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUN WITH FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE E OF 69W 
AND SEAS BUILD 8-10 FT SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PRESENTLY IN CENTRAL ATLC AT 12N41W IS 
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVE W THROUGH FRI APPROACHING THE 
LESSER ANTILLES LATE SAT.  MOST DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE MORE 
OF A TURN NW THAN STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AS IT NEARS 50W.  PRESENT 
FORECAST RELIES ON THAT TURN TO THE NW FRI JUST AS OPHELIA 
ENTERS TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE NEAR 15N55W FRI NIGHT THEN TRACKING 
JUST NE OF WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH MINOR STRENGTHENING BY END OF 
FORECAST PERIOD.  MAIN CONCERN WITH OPHELIA AT THIS TIME IS ITS 
STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS OVER NRN SEMICIRCLE...SO IF 
TRACK IS MAINTAINED...ISLANDS MIGHT SQUEEZE BY ON ITS WEAKER 
SIDE.

WARNINGS...
GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
.NONE.

SW N ATLC...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI THROUGH SUN...AMZ087.
          
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER WALLY BARNES