000
AGXX40 KNHC 200811
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
355 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAKENING COLD FRONT HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER NORTHERN GULF 
WATERS SUPPORTS LIGHT TO MODERATE E BREEZE AND SEAS TO 5 FT 
ACROSS MOST OF BASIN THROUGH SAT.  WEAK STATIONARY TROUGH ALONG 
90W PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG COASTAL STATES E OF 90W.

SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
WEAKENING FRONT IN NW PORTION DISSIPATE TODAY AS RIDGE BUILDS IN 
ITS WAKE.  MODERATE NE WINDS N OF FRONT EARLY TODAY GIVE WAY TO 
LIGHT BREEZE THROUGH THU.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...REMNANT 
FROM PREVIOUS CYCLONE...FROM 31N71W TO E CUBA MAINTAINS MOIST 
UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF BASIN WITH SCATTERED 
CONVECTION ALONG GREATER ANTILLES.  

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
LOW PRES IN CENTRAL ATLC AT 11N38W EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT 
MOVE W THROUGH WED POSSIBLY BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  LOW 
PRES CENTER REACH TROPICAL N ATLC FRI AND MOVE INTO ERN 
CARIBBEAN LATE SAT.  MODEL GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT 
CONCERNING ITS WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH FRI THEN DIVERGE IN ITS 
POLEWARD CURVATURE AND ITS TIMING.  ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS 
APPROACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAINLY IN ITS NRN SEMICIRCLE SINCE 
EARLY WED.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROUGH S OF CUBA DRIFT W 
THROUGH THU AS IT STRENGTHENS...IN SPITE OF ADVERSE UPPER LEVEL 
ENVIRONMENT.  TROUGH EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD 
AS IT CROSSES INTO YUCATAN PENINSULA. 

WARNINGS...

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
.NONE.

SW N ATLC...
.NONE.
          
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER WALLY BARNES