000 AGXX40 KNHC 191817 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE NE GULF IS SUPPORTING MODERATE NE WINDS AND SEAS TO 5 FT N OF 27N E OF 88W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH TUE AND WED. OTHERWISE MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... WEAKENING FRONT IN NW PORTION WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. MODERATE NE WINDS N OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE MORNING...THEN WEAKEN TUE EVENING. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE N OF 28N W OF 77W TONIGHT. WEAKER UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 24N65W IS MAINTAINING A MOIST CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... LOW PRES IN CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 12N38W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE W THROUGH WED...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. LOW CENTER WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE THU...AND MOVE TOWARD THE E CARIBBEAN FRI. MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALSO...WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE MUCH HIGHER...AND HAVE A GREATER EXTENT...WITHIN THE N SEMICIRCLE THAN S OF THE CENTER. GFS UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATE 20-30 KT WINDS DEVELOPING N OF THE LOW BY WED...WITH 8-12 FT SEAS REACHING TO 22N IN THE N SEMICIRCLE. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W WILL SLOWLY MOVE W THROUGH TUE. A WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 84W BY WED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT W OF 70W THROUGH WED. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL