000
AGXX40 KNHC 190731
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRES RIDGE SPREADS ACROSS NORTHERN GULF...AS WEAK TROUGH 
CROSSES YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER TODAY. 
TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT ACROSS NE GULF PRODUCE FRESH E BREEZE 
OF 27N E OF 88W THROUGH MON THEN DIMINISH TUE AND WED.  
OTHERWISE MOSTLY LIGHT WIND ACROSS REMAINDER OF AREA THROUGH END 
OF FORECAST PERIOD.

SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT OFF NE PART FLORIDA DISSIPATES TODAY 
WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE.  FRESH TO STRONG NE BREEZE NW 
OF FRONT BECOMES A MODERATE E WIND LATER TODAY.  SCATTERED 
CONVECTION REMAINS N OF 28N W OF 77W THROUGH TONIGHT.  UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST N OF MONA PASSAGE NEAR 22N66W 
MAINTAINS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS THROUGHOUT ENTIRE BASIN.  

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE CAUSED BY ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONE ENHANCES CONVECTION ACROSS ISLANDS FROM HISPANIOLA 
EASTWARD AS SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES WINDWARD PASSAGE TODAY.  
WEAKENING LOW PRES CENTER 1010 MB E OF AREA NEAR 17N47W MOVE 
CLOSER TO TROPICAL ATLC ZONE LATE MON....BUT LIKELY BECOME 
DIFFUSE BEFORE IT MAKES ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON ZONE.  SECOND 
LOW PRES CENTER...1008 MB AT 12N37W AND POSSIBLE TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN NEXT 48 HRS...A MORE LIKELY CANDIDATE TO 
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INTO TROPICAL ATLC ZONE LATE WED WITH WINDS 
INCREASING RAPIDLY TO ABOVE 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING ABOVE 12 
FT.  MODEL GUIDANCE MOVE IT CLOSE TO EASTERN CARIBBEAN ZONE LATE 
FRI.  

WARNINGS...

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
.NONE.

SW N ATLC...
.NONE.
          
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER WALLY BARNES