000 AGXX40 KNHC 171755 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... DIFFUSE STATIONARY FRONT IN NORTHERN GULF WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUN WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT IN NE GULF. N OF 27N E OF 88W NE WIND INCREASES TO 15-20 KT MON-TUE...BUT SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... DIVERGENCE E OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER PUERTO RICO IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 59W. TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENING AND LIFTING N THROUGH SUN...WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY W. LOSS OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL TEND TO WEAKEN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE TROUGH SUN AND MON. HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL EXTEND SW NEAR THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MON...ALLOWING E TRADES TO INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ZONES. A LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 10N38W WILL MOVE W...AND APPROACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC THU. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... WEAKENING COLD FRONT IN FAR NW PART OF ZONE OFF NE FLORIDA WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUN...WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. FRESH NE WINDS EXPECTED IN NW PORTION SUN-MON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE. TROUGH FROM 31N69W TO 22N77W WILL DRIFT W TO THE BAHAMAS THROUGH SUN AND REACH THE COAST OF FLORIDA BY MON AS IT WEAKENS. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL