000 AGXX40 KNHC 150649 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1016 MB HIGH PRES REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR 28N87W. PLATFORM AND ASCAT DATA FROM THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS ARE SHOWING 20 KT WINDS OFF THE COAST OF S TEXAS. ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON CURRENTLY IN THE GREAT PLAINS WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD BUT WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS THE FAR NRN GULF THU NIGHT BECOMING STATIONARY FRI AND DISSIPATE SAT INTO SUN. GFS DEPICTING N TO NE WINDS OF 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT BRIEFLY BEFORE SPEEDS DROP OFF FRI AND SAT. NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE EASTERN GULF STARTING SUN AND CONTINUING INTO MON...AS A TROUGH MIGRATES WWD THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NE CONUS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... ASCAT DATA FROM 0130 UTC SHOW WINDS REACHING 20 KT NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS AND ALONG THE VENEZUELAN COAST...AS RIDGING FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLC BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...FOLLOWING A WEAK TROUGH ALONG 73W S OF HAITI. FRESH TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED IN ASCAT DATA S OF THE RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS A RESULT. WEAK LOW PRES WILL FORM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND WESTERN PANAMA BY SAT. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... AS OF 15/0300 UTC TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS CENTERED NEAR 28.0N 68.6W. MARIA IS CENTERED ON WESTERN EDGE OF CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE STORM. BUOY AND ASCAT DATA ALSO SHOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KT EXTEND AS FAR AS 360 NM E OF THE STORM CENTER AS WELL. EASTERLY SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT GENERATED BY MARIA IS PROPAGATING WESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...BUT WILL SUBSIDE OVER THROUGH LATE TODAY AS MARIA CONTINUES FURTHER NORTH. MARIA IS EXPECTED INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...AND VEER MORE TO THE ENE TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA. SEE BULLETIN WTNT24 KNHC/TCMAT4 FOR THE LATEST DETAILS ON MARIA. A TROUGH TRAILING OFF MARIA WILL LINGER MAINLY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY DRIFTING NW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS OFF NE FLORIDA BY LATE FRI...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY SUN BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE CAROLINAS AND TROUGHING OVER THE BAHAMAS. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 24N E OF 70W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN