000 AGXX40 KNHC 141849 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS ARE GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF AS 1016 MB HIGH PRES REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST. EXCEPTIONS ARE ALONG THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WHERE SE TO S RETURN FLOW IS ABOUT 15 KT AT TIMES. THE EDGE OF A 1240 UTC WINDSAT PASS CAPTURED SOME OF THESE WINDS. THE EXTREME N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE MIGRATING WESTWARD ACROSS MEXICO IS PASSING OVER THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THU AS THE HIGH PRES REMAINS IN PLACE. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON CURRENTLY IN THE GREAT PLAINS WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD BUT WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS THE FAR NRN GULF THU NIGHT BECOMING STATIONARY FRI AND DISSIPATE SAT INTO SUN. GFS DEPICTING N TO NE WINDS OF 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT BRIEFLY BEFORE SPEEDS DROP OFF FRI AND SAT. NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE EASTERN GULF STARTING SUN AND CONTINUING INTO MON...AS A TROUGH MIGRATES WWD THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NE CONUS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND RETRIEVALS FROM AN 1102 UTC WINDSAT PASS SHOW A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 71W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WELL SOUTH OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA CENTERED OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC N OF HISPANIOLA. SE TO S WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE NOTED E OF THE TROUGH WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO THE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LIGHT FLOW PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. BUOYS INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING T.S MARIA WELL TO THE N...AND SW OF HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLC. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT N OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH LATE THU. TRADES WILL INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS THE HIGH PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC BUILDS W IN THE WAKE OF T.S. MARIA. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...BETWEEN THE RIDGING TO THE NE...AND THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... AS OF 1500 UTC TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS CENTERED NE OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 25.2N 69.4W. THE STORM IS EXPERIENCING NW SHEARING WITH AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER WITH CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION NOTED MAINLY ON THE SE SIDE OF THE STORM CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND 150 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE N-NE OVER FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS WITHIN THE PERIPHERAL CIRCULATION OF MARIA. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND EXIT THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THU. SEE BULLETIN WTNT24 KNHC/TCMAT4 FOR THE LATEST DETAILS ON MARIA. ELSEWHERE LARGE E SWELL GENERATED BY MARIA HAS PROPAGATED TOWARD THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...BUT DUE TO THE ACCELERATION OF MARIA EXPECT LITTLE FOLLOW-ON THE E SWELL WITH HEIGHTS MAXIMIZING AT 8 FT OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A TROUGH TRAILING OFF MARIA WILL LINGER MAINLY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY DRIFTING NW. FURTHER NW...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE AND MID-ATLC WILL DRAPE SWD INTO THE AREA LATE SAT AND EXTEND FROM 31N78W TO NE FLORIDA LATE SUN AND REMAIN IN PLACE MON. N-NE WINDS OF 20 LOCALLY 25 KT POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IN FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. COUNTER-CURRENT N-NE FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER BY MON. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 23N E OF 70W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER COBB