000 AGXX40 KNHC 140726 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS ARE GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE GULF AS 1017 MB HIGH PRES REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL SECTION OF THE GULF. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE ASCAT DATA FROM 0338 UTC SHOWED WINDS TO 15 KT...BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND A TROPICAL WAVE MIGRATING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THU AS THE HIGH PRES REMAINS IN PLACE. THE HIGH PRES WILL DISSIPATE FRI AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH STATES AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY SAT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND DIFFUSE OVER THE NE GULF SAT INTO SUN. NE TO E FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN GULF STARTING SUN...AS A TROUGH MIGRATES NE THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND HIGH PRES OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM A 02 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOW A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 69W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WELL SOUTH OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA. LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS ARE NOTED E OF THE TROUGH...BUT OTHERWISE LIGHT FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. BUOYS INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING T.S MARIA WELL TO THE N...AND SW OF HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLC. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT N OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH LATE THU. TRADES WILL INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS THE HIGH PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC BUILDS W IN THE WAKE OF T.S. MARIA. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...BETWEEN THE RIDGING TO THE NE...AND THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS CENTERED NE OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 23.8N 68.5W. THE STORM IS EXPERIENCING NW SHEARING WITH AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. AS A RESULT...CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED MAINLY ON THE SW SIDE OF THE STORM CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REACH 150 NM TO THE EAST. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD. SEE BULLETIN WTNT24 KNHC/TCMAT4 FOR THE LATEST DETAILS ON MARIA. ELSEWHERE LARGE E SWELL GENERATED BY MARIA WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...BUT DUE TO MARIA FAST FORWARD MOVEMENT NORTHWARD...LITTLE FOLLOW ON E SWELL AT LEAST AS HIGH AS 8 FT WILL BE GENERATED THAT WILL REACH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS OR NE FLORIDA COAST. A TROUGH TRAILING OFF MARIA WILL LINGER MAINLY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY DRIFTING NW. FURTHER N...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DIP S OF 30N BY EARLY FRI IN THE WAKE OF MARIA. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE OFF NE FLORIDA BY SUN. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 21N E OF 70W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN