000 AGXX40 KNHC 130906 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2011 UPDATED SOUTHWEST N ATLC FOR MARIA MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1019 MB HIGH PRES IS LOCATED IN THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR 28N88W AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SAT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND FAIRLY CALM SEAS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WED NIGHT APPROACHING E CENTRAL MEXICO BY THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT EVEN AS THIS WAVE SLOWLY PASSES BY. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS NW OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC NEAR 21.3N 67.5W 1006 MB AT 0300 UTC MOVING NW AT 2 KT WITH NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 17N W OF 62W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NW PORTION THROUGH MID WEEK AS MARIA LIFTS OFF TO THE NW-N. SEE WTNT24 KNHC/TCMAT4 FOR THE LATEST DETAILS ON MARIA. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS SLOWED DOWN IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND IS ALONG THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN. THIS WAVE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. A WEAK PRES PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND MAINLY CALM SEAS. THIS WILL CHANGE AS ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ALONG 57W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT THEN THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS PUERTO RICO WED NIGHT...THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI THEN W CARIBBEAN SAT WHILE SLOWING DOWN. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SURGE OF 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE WAVE WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 9 FT THU THROUGH SAT. OTHERWISE...A PULSE OF 20 KT WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY 8-9 FT SEAS IN E SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC FRI AND SAT. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS IN THE FAR SE PORTION NEAR 21.6N 67.7W 1006 MB AT 5 AM EDT MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE S OF 23N E OF 68W. WSR-88D RADAR FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO SHOWS MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN WELL OFFSHORE ALTHOUGH SOME OUTER BANDS ARE MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND FLOOD ADVISORIES WERE IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE E HALF OF PUERTO RICO. REFER TO STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NWS SAN JUAN OFFICE FORE MORE DETAILS. MARIA WILL MOVE TO NEAR 22.8N 68.3W THIS AFTERNOON... 24.8N 68.7W TONIGHT...27.5N 68.7W WED AFTERNOON AND N OF THE AREA TO 31.2N 67.9W WED NIGHT. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT IS EXPECTED WED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT E OF 70W. LARGE SWELLS WILL LINGER OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA THU SUBSIDING TO LESS THEN 8 FT BY FRI MORNING. SEE WTNT24 KNHC/TCMAT4 FOR THE LATEST DETAILS ON MARIA. OTHERWISE...A TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE E PORTION OF THE AREA ON THU AND FRI IN THE WAKE OF MARIA...MOVING W TOWARD THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND W PORTION SAT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING S OF 31N OVER THE FAR NW PORTION LATE FRI REACHING TO JUST N OF CAPE CANAVERAL LATE SAT WITH A SURGE OF NE 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT N OF 29N W OF 79W. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...TROPICAL STORM WARNING E OF 70W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY