000 AGXX40 KNHC 110619 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS NEAR 19.9N 95.4W 1004 MB AT 100 AM CDT MOVING W AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. PRELIMINARY DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT NATE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED AND THE CHANCES OF NATE BECOMING A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL ARE DIMINISHING. A STORM SURGE OF 2-4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO THE N OF THE CENTER PRIOR TO LANDFALL WITH 4-6 INCHES...ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 12 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ AND TABASCO. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A MAXIMUM OF 14-15 FT SEAS NE OF NATE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. OTHERWISE...1017 MB HIGH PRES IS OVER THE FAR N GULF NEAR 29N89W WITH 5-15 KT WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF (OTHER THAN THE SW GULF) AS CAPTURED BY A 0300 UTC ASCAT PASS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE SW GULF IN THE WAKE OF NATE MON AND TUE WHILE HIGH PRES REMAINS POSITIONED IN THE N CENTRAL WATERS. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CLIP THE FAR NE GULF TUE SHIFTING E OF THE AREA BY WED. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS NEAR NEAR 18.5N 62.9W 1005 MB AT 11 PM EDT MOVING NW AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. MARIA IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY WHILE CONTINUING NW...EXITING THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AROUND 00Z MON AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 21.0N 65.4W. TRAILING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL THEN EXIT THE AREA MON MORNING. SEE WTNT24 KNHC/TCMAT4 FOR THE LATEST DETAILS ON MARIA. ELSEWHERE...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W WILL MIGRATE NW TOWARD THE GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MON NIGHT. A 0258 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED 10-15 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 60-120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS MON AND MON NIGHT...APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TUE NIGHT...THEN MOVING THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N72W TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA WILL DRIFT W BEFORE DISSIPATING MON. OTHERWISE WEAK RIDING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE N WATERS ALONG 29N EXTENDING FROM 1022 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 29N55W. A 0120 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE SE PORTION AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA. MARIA WILL ENTER THE BASIN THIS EVENING NEAR 21.0N 65.4W WITH 45 KT WINDS GUSTS TO 55 KT...THEN MOVING TO 22.3N 66.8W MON MORNING...23.3N 68.1W MON EVENING...26.0N 69.5W TUE EVENING...THEN MOVING N OF THE AREA TO 32.0N 69.0W WED EVENING. ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT BY MON MORNING IS ANTICIPATED...THEN TO 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT WED EVENING. SEE WTNT24 KNHC/TCMAT4 FOR THE LATEST DETAILS ON MARIA. A TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE E PORTION OF THE WATERS ON THU IN THE WAKE OF MARIA WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND SEAS SUBSIDING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 23N W OF 93W. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ087...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 18N W OF 60W. SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 26N E OF 70W. .AMZ080...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 26N E OF 71W TUE AND WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY