000 AGXX40 KNHC 091902 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE MAIN FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE TROPICAL STORM NATE SITUATED IN THE SW GULF ZONE NEAR 20.3N 92.6W...OR ABOUT 240 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO AT 1 PM CDT MOVING WSW AT 3 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KT GUSTS TO 55 KT AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 998 MB. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1610 UTC THIS AFTERNOON NICELY CAPTURED THE WIND FIELD AROUND THE CYCLONE. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA SW TO NEAR 25N89W. NATE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES TO NEAR 20.8N 93.8W BY EARLY SAT..THEN MOVE TO NEAR 20.9N 94.8W EARLY SAT NIGHT...AND INLAND NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO BY SUN NIGHT. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO 24N90W. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT NATE IS QUICKLY ORGANIZING AS NOTED IN ITS TIGHT BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO IT FROM W AND NW. NATE CONTINUES TO BE JUST TO THE SE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SINCE NATE IS FORECAST TO STAY CONFINED TO THE SW GULF ZONE...ITS IMPACTS IN THE WAY OF THE GENERATION OF VERY LARGE SEAS WILL BE SEEN IN THAT ZONE THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT AT WHICH TIME RESIDUALS OF ABOUT 8 FT SHOULD BE OBSERVED OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 5 FT MON. SEE WTNT25 KNHC/TCMAT5 FOR MORE INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM NATE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.3N 57.9W AT 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON MOVING WNW AT 12 KT WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1004 MB. JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE IS COVERED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION N OF 13N. MARIA IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ONLY SLIGHTLY AS APPROACHES THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT...AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 16.5N 62.4W BY SAT MORNING. MARIA IS THEN FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 17.9N 64.5W EARLY SAT NIGHT...THEN EXIT THE AREA TO NEAR 19.3N 66.5W BY SUN MORNING WITH RELATED TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS GRADUALLY EXITING THE NW PART OF THE TROPIC N ATLC LATE SUN NIGHT INTO SUN. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO PASS TO THE N OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE N AND NE QUADRANTS OVER ATLANTIC WATERS. SEE WTNT24 KNHC/TCMAT4 FOR LATEST DETAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM HAITI TO 12N79W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SAT THROUGH SUN. THE NEXT FEATURE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 16N35W TO 7N40W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE MOVE THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC MON... AND INTO THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED. SW ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS E OF 79W AS A WEAK RIDGE SETTLES ALONG 26N IN THE WAKE OF KATIA. BUOYS AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM THIS AFTERNOON CONFIRMED THIS. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT MORNING WHILE THE RIDGE LIFTS N TO ALONG 28N SAT...AND TO N OF THE AREA MON. TROPICAL STORM MARIA CURRENTLY IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC NEAR 14.2N 57.5W AT 11 AM EDT WILL MOVE TO NEAR 15.1N 59.9W EARLY TONIGHT ...TO 16.5N 62.4W SAT MORNING...TO 17.9N 64.5W SAT NIGHT... TO 19.3N 66.5W SUN MORNING...TO 22.0N 69.8W MON MORNING AND 24.0N 72.0W TUE MORNING AND TO NEAR 28N 74W BY EARLY WED. THIS FEATURE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE EASTERN AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTION WITH STRONG WINDS AND VERY LARGE SEAS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON BY WHICH TIME IT WILL BE AFFECTING THE FAR NE WATERS WITH LINGERING SWELLS ELSEWHERE E OF ABOUT 71W. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE...NOW DEPICTED AS A TROUGH...ON THE MANUAL SURFACE PROGS IS ALONG 74W S OF 26N MOVING WNW 15 KT. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE DAMPENING OUT SUN AS IT TURNS MORE TO THE NW AND N E OF FLORIDA AND MERGES WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEAKENING FRONT. ONLY A SMALL AREA OF E 15-20 KT WINDS IS E OF THE WAVE S OF 22N...BUT WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT SUN AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...HURRICANE WARNING S OF 23N W OF 90W. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC... .AMZ086...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 15N E OF 67W. .AMZ087...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM 14N-21N. SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED S OF 28N E OF 75W SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...THEN N OF 27N E OF 73W WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE