000 AGXX40 KNHC 061846 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT SEP 06 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR COATZACOALCOS MEXICO. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1530 UTC CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF NW WINDS TO 25 KT FUNNELING BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN VERACRUZ. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED SHARP CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS REMAIN ACTIVE ALONG AND SE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT W...THEN STALL FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE THROUGH LATE WED. THE CONSENSUS AMONG GLOBAL MODELS IS THAT LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEAKENING FRONT...THEN LINGER OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH FRI WHILE DEEPENING. CURRENTLY THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT REGARDING THIS FEATURE. SEE THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...ABNT20 KNHC/TWOAT...FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW PRES AREA. ELSEWHERE WINDS AND SEAS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 55W FROM 12N TO 19N WILL TRACK NW IN THE WAKE OF HURCN KATIA...PASSING THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN WED EVENING THROUGH THU EVENING. BUOY DATA SHOW WEAK LOW PRES NEAR 15N55W WITH PRES AROUND 1011 MB ALONG THE WAVE. A 14 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH E WINDS TO FROM 17N TO 24N. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IS NOTED WITH THE LOW PRES AS WELL. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE LEEWARDS. A SECOND MORE DEVELOPED LOW PRES AREA IS NOTED FURTHER SE NEAR 12N36W. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THIS WILL TRACKING ENE...POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PASSING 14N55W BY EARLY FRI...AND APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY SUN. ELSEWHERE...FRESH SE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU. SW ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... HURCN KATIA IS FORECAST IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE SW N ATLC ZONE. THE CENTER OF KATIA WILL MOVE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY EARLY THU. HIGH PRES WILL BUILDS ALONG 25N IN THE WAKE OF KATIA...WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MIGRATING S OF THE RIDGE THROUGH PUERTO RICO BY EARLY THU...REACHING THE TURKS/CAICOS AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS FRI...THEN DAMPENING OUT SAT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPED LOW PRES AREA...POSSIBLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWES THIS FEATURE TO THE N OF PUERTO RICO BY SUN. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...HURRICANE WARNING N OF 24N E OF 70W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN