000 AGXX40 KNHC 291829 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS THE N PART OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA MAINTAINING MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA. A TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS INTERACTION WILL RESULT IN STRONG TROUGHING...AND PERHAPS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SW GULF WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE TROUGH...POSSIBLE LOW...WILL SHIFT WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL FRESHEN THE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF MIDWEEK. SW ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FINALLY DECREASED BELOW 20 KT AND 8 FT ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WATERS. A SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT BACK ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF IRENE AND JOSE. THE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK WHEN IT WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT EASTWARD THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL ENABLE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WED AFTERNOON...SHIFTING E ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRI. AS MENTIONED...THIS IS A WEAK BOUNDARY...AND THROUGH IT WILL BRING A SHIFT IN THE WINDS...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE WINDS OR SEAS SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILT BACK INTO THE SW N ATLC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS HAS TIGHTENED AND TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAVE INCREASED. THESE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...DIMINISHING THU AND FRI AS THE RIDGE N OF THE AREA RETREATS EASTWARD WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN. CURRENTLY KEEPING AN EYE ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE LATEST FORECAST CALLS FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE THU...AND APPROACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS NEXT WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AL