000 AGXX40 KNHC 281840 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES TO PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST BUOY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WIND OBSERVATIONS. SEAS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 3 FT ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE FAR N PART OF THE AREA. THIS INDUCED NORTHERLY FLOW IS A GREAT EXAMPLE OF THE LARGE INFLUENCE THAT RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM IRENE HAS HAD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE GULF WATERS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THERE IS CURRENTLY A WEAK LOW LEVEL FEATURE SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FAVORABLE INTERACTION OF THIS LOW LEVEL FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS FAVORABLE INTERACTION MAY RESULT IN A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SW GULF WATERS BY MIDWEEK...WHICH WILL FRESHEN THE WINDS OVER THIS AREA. SW ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... HURRICANE IRENE WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AND IS NOW WELL N OF THE AREA AND WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE AREA. THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT WAS E OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS YESTERDAY WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM JOSE EARLY THIS MORNING. A WELL PLACED ASCAT PASS THIS MORNING INDICATED THE WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WHICH PROMPTED THE UPGRADE. THIS IS A GOOD EXAMPLE OF THE IMPORTANCE OF SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS. JOSE IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WOULD HAVE BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO DETECT WITHOUT THE AVAILABILITY OF THE ASCAT SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. ALSO...ANOTHER POINT OF INTEREST...WHEN OBSERVED IN COMPARISON TO A LARGE SYSTEM AS IRENE...IT ALSO SHOWS THE WIDE RANGE OF SIZE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES. JOSE MOVED N OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM...ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF JOSE AND IRENE...LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AS WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK WHEN IT WILL SHIFT BACK EAST...ENABLING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ENTER THE NW PART OF THE AREA BY WED. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MODERATE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION ARE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS JUST N OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. LATEST ASCAT PASS AND LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE THE RIDGING BUILDING BACK IN ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WATERS. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WHICH WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AL