000 AGXX40 KNHC 271835 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN LIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THIS WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE EXCEPTION OS OVER THE NE GULF WHERE CONDITIONS ARE DRIVEN BY THE LARGE CIRCULATION AROUND HURRICANE IRENE. LATEST OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NE GULF INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IRENE MOVES FURTHER UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NE GULF BY TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...THIS BOUNDARY WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON THE MARINE CONDITIONS. A WEAK LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION NEAR BELIZE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT W OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL PV TAIL...THE DEFORMATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THAT THIS FAVORABLE INTERACTION WILL INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO FORM OVER THE SW GULF WATERS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FRESHENED WINDS OVER THIS AREA WED AND THU. SW ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... EVEN THOUGH HURRICANE IRENE IS MOVING FURTHER N OF THE AREA...THE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION AROUND IRENE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY N OF 26N. LATEST WINDSAT PASS INDICATE WINDS OF 20 TO 33 KT CONTINUES WITH SEAS STILL IN THE 9 TO 15 FT RANGE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WHEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL FINALLY FALL BELOW 20 KT AND 8 FT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF IRENE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW INDUCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N64W. EARLIER BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED 30 KT WINDS IN THE S QUADRANT OF THIS FEATURE THIS MORNING. THE FEATURE IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING NW...AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES N OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... MOST RECENT SATELLITE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS PRODUCED ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE THAT DEVELOPED OVER SOUTH AMERICA CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE WILL DAMPEN OUT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS BACKGROUND CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL WAVE GROWTH. A WEAK TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WILL DAMPEN OUT BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SW N ATLC IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE IRENE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN TO FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...PREVAILING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AL