000 AGXX40 KNHC 270727 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 325 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH PARTIAL ASCAT DATA FROM LATE LAST NIGHT SHOW W-NW WIND FLOW COVERING THE GULF SECTION N OF ABOUT 26N IN THE EAST ZONE...AND N OF 27N IN THE MIDDLE ZONE. SPEEDS ARE HIGHER IN THE EAST ZONE WHERE THEY RANGE FROM 15-20 KT...AND 10-15 KT IN THE MIDDLE ZONE. LIGHTER W-NW WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE S OF 26N IN THE EAST ZONE...VARIABLE 5-10 KT FROM 24N-27N IN THE MIDDLE ZONE...NE-E 10 KT IN THE SW ZONE AND E-SE 10 KT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT N OF 27N W OF 92W IN THE NW ZONE WHERE THEY ARE S-SW. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 1-3 FT...EXCEPT HIGHER RANGES OF 3-5 FT IN THE EASTERN GULF N OF 26N WHERE THE PERSISTENT W-NW 15-20 KT FLOW IS OCCURRING. A WEAK PRES PATTERN IS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE SE STATES WILL DROP INTO THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS DURING THE MORNING...THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE MON. WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME VARIABLE 5-10 KT OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND SW ZONES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUE BEFORE MATERIALIZING INTO MORE OF AN E-SE FLOW AT 10-15 KT INTO WED AS AN ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF TUE AND WED. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SW GULF TUE AND WED AS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS. SW ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... WITH HURCN IRENE NOW N OF THE AREA NEAR 33.1N 76.5W...OR ABOUT 105 NM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA AS OF 0600 UTC THIS MORNING THE ASSOCIATED BROAD WIND FIELD IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER MUCH OF THE NW SECTION OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND WITHIN 225 NM OF IRENE IN THE SE QUADRANT...AND 140 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT. BASED ON THIS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR N OF 29N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...BUT WILL LIKELY EXPIRE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE 34 KT WIND RADII LIFTS NWD AS IRENE PROGRESSES TO THE NNE AT 11 KT. THE MAIN IMPACT TO THIS PORTION OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN AS HIGH SEAS ATTRIBUTED TO LINGERING LARGE MAINLY NLY SWELLS THROUGH THOSE WATERS. RESULTANT SEAS CURRENTLY OBSERVED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 15-24 FT ARE OVER THE NW PORTION IN THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SEAS OF 9-14 FT IN MIXED N AND SE SWELL ARE PRESENT ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE AREA OF 20-33 KT WINDS N OF 26N AND W OF 70W. THESE SEAS WILL SLOWLY LOWER TO 5-8 FT IN THE NE PART BY SUN NIGHT...AND TO 3-5 FT BY WED...WITH SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT W AND NW OF THE BAHAMAS AS A WEAK RIDGE SETS UP ALONG 31N E OF 72W WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD JUST NW OF THE AREA INTO SE GEORGIA. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH SUN...WITH WINDS GENERALLY E-SE 15 KT AND SEAS 4-6 FT ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS MAY PERIODICALLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA TUE AND WED. SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE N CENTRAL WATERS LATE TUE AND WED. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW IN MENTIONING THIS FEATURE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AND WAIT FOR MORE CONSISTENCY...IF ANY...IN THE FUTURE MODEL RUNS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... PARTIAL ASCAT DATA ALONG WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE WHERE WINDS ARE NE-E AND SE-S IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BRIEF PERIOD OF E WINDS OF 15-20 KT MAY BE SEEN IN THE AREA BETWEEN 70W-76W THROUGH SUN...AND THEN EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA LATE SUN THROUGH WED AS CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS WESTWARD. WINDS MAY INCREASE SOME OVER THE NORTHERN TROPICAL ATLC MON AND TUE AS WELL WITH THE ATLC RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 FT OVER THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 67W-77W MON THROUGH WED WITH THE INCREASING DURATION FROM THE 15-20 KT WINDS. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 29N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W... FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE