000 AGXX40 KNHC 211541 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1135 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011 RELEASING EARLY TO UPDATE WARNINGS... MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT HIGH PRES CENTERS ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. A WEAK COLD WILL STALL OVER THE N AND NE COASTAL PLAINS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS N TO NEAR 23N90W FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT W AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY THROUGH TUE NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM NHC SUGGESTS TC HARVEY WILL MOVE NW ALONG CUBAN COAST REACHING CAY SAL BANK EARLY THU AND INLAND S FL LATE THU NIGHT. THUS POSTED TS AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS FOR SE GULF THU. N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... PER NHC GUIDANCE...TS IRENE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN FORECAST TO MOVE NW ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT INCREASING TO A MINIMAL HURCN BEFORE REACHING HISPANIOLA MON MORNING...MAINTAIN TS STRENGTH AS IT DISSECTS HISPANIOLA REACHING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TUE...MOVE ALONG THE NE COAST OF CUBA TUE NIGHT...THEN REGAIN MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH WED IN FL STRAITS BEFORE MOVING INLAND S FL MIDDAY THU. UNCERTAINTY OF COURSE IS THE EXACT TRACK AND DETERIORATION DUE TO LANDMASS ENCOUNTERS. OTHERWISE A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... ..GMZ086...TS AND HURCN CONDS THU. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ082...TS CONDS EXPECTED N OF 19N E OF 77W TUE NIGHT INTO WED. .AMZ086...TS WRNG N OF 16N E OF 75W. HURCN CONDS EXPECTED N OF 17N BETWEEN 65W-72W MON-TUE. .AMZ087...TS WRNG N OF 16N W OF 50W. SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...TS WRNG S OF 21N E OF 68W TS AND HURCN CONDS EXPECTED S OF 26N W OF 76W TUE-THU FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON