000 AGXX40 KNHC 201952 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT HIGH PRES CENTERS ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. A WEAK COLD WILL STALL OVER THE N AND NE COASTAL PLAINS TUE NIGHT AND WED. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING N FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY W ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM LATE TONIGHT SUN NIGHT. GUIDANCE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROUGH. THUS BUMPED UP WINDS AND SEAS AND CONVECTION ALONG THE TROUGH IN THIS MORNINGS TEXT PACKAGE. N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... TS HARVEY WILL MOVE INLAND BELIZE THIS EVENING. REFER TO WTNT23 KNHC/TCMAT3 FOR FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES ON TS HARVEY. EXPECT E WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT W GULF OF HONDURAS BY MIDDAY SUN. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DEVELOPING LOW PRES NEAR 14N55W THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN...AND TRACK WNW ALONG 15N ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN...POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... TONIGHT THROUGH MON...REACHING NEAR HISPANIOLA TUE...AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WED...WITH WHATEVER REMAINS CONTINUING NW THROUGH THE FL STRAITS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATE NEXT WEEK. A SCATTEROMETER PASS THIS MORNING CONFIRMS THE LARGE ENVELOPE OF NLY WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KT OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY...MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR AS THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE SW ATLC S OF 25N...AND THE NE AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE N OF 14N...AS WELL AS MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLC ZONE. WITH LARGE AREA OF 25 T0 30 KT WINDS ALREADY OBSERVED... I BUILT SEAS TO 15 FT N OF CENTER IN BOTH CARIBBEAN AND SW ATLC ON GRAPHICS. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ082...HURRICANE WARNING S OF 18N W OF 86W. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON