000 AGXX40 KNHC 200733 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM N FLORIDA THROUGH TEXAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SAT...THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SUN AND MON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND STALLS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FURTHER SOUTH...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...MAINTAINING MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN GULF. N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO N FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG 28N TO 29N THROUGH TUE. MEANWHILE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A DEVELOPING LOW PRES NEAR 14N53W TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND...POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THEN TOWARD HISPANIOLA BY LATE MON...AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TUE. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS S OF 25N WILL START TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT N OF PUERTO RICO BY LATE SUN...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 12 FT...SPREADING W THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS MON INTO TUE WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KT. MARINERS AND INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W...TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS CENTERED NEAR 16.2N 85.2W AT 03Z...OFF THE N CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS. CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR THE CENTER OF HARVEY. THE STORM WILL TRACK W THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS...INTENSIFYING TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BRIEFLY BEFORE MOVING INTO BELIZE BY LATE SAT. REFER TO WTNT23 KNHC/TCMAT3 FOR FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES ON TS HARVEY. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY MODERATE E FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. FURTHER EAST MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A DEVELOPING LOW PRES APPROXIMATELY 450 NM E OF GUADELOUPE NEAR 14N53W TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND...POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THEN TOWARD HISPANIOLA BY LATE MON. FOR NOW...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ELEVATE WINDS TO 30 KT WITH SEAS TO 13 FT OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN STARTING LATE SUN THROUGH TUE. MARINERS AND INTERESTS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW PRES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ082...HURRICANE WARNING 16N-18N W OF 84W THROUGH LATE SAT. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN