000 AGXX40 KNHC 190735 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1015 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. WEAK TROUGHING PRESENT OVER THE NE GULF WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE SE UNITED STATES AND NE GULF. THE WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF AND LIMIT SEAS TO 3 FT OR LESS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE FAR S CENTRAL GULF AND SW GULF THIS WEEKEND...AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT MOVING TOWARD THE GULF OF HONDURAS INTENSIFIES TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. WHILE THIS WILL NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE GULF...IT WILL MAINTAIN 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF. N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... WEAK RIDGING EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA. BUOY DATA SHOW ONLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A SURFACE LOW PRES AREA IS FORMING OVER THE NC OUTER BANKS...IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY MIGRATING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW THE SW WINDS N OF THE RIDGE AXIS TO INCREASE BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA THROUGH LATE TODAY...THEN DIMINISHING BY SAT AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW LIFT OUT. FURTHER SOUTH...ASCAT DATA SHOW FRESH E FLOW S OF THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE PATTERN ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY...WHEN NE FLOW WILL INCREASE N OF PUERTO RICO IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...THAT IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN AREA OF ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS MON AND TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT HAS FORMED OFF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NE NICARAGUA NEAR 15N82W. T.D. EIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT SHIFTS W THROUGH LATE SUN ALONG THE N COAST OF HONDURAS. THIS WILL IMPACT THE AREA S OF 17N W OF 84W INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH SUNDAY. REFER TO WTNT23 KNHC/TCMAT3 FOR FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES ON T.D. EIGHT. ELSEWHERE MAINLY MODERATE TRADES WILL REMAIN OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. A LOW PRES AREA DEVELOPING ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 45W WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AND SHIFT THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY EARLY SUN...POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT...WITH THE GFS STILL MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING WINDS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 30 KT TO THE NE CARIBBEAN BY EARLY MON. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ082...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI AND SAT. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN