000 AGXX40 KNHC 161910 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N92W...AND ANOTHER 1016 MB OVER MEXICO NEAR 21N99W RESULTING IN A WEAK PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF EXTENDING FROM JUST N OF TAMPA FLORIDA TO 28N86W...AND NW TO SE LOUISIANA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE S OF THE FRONT TO 26N. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS DISSIPATING OVER SE MEXICO WHERE SCATTERED TSTMS ARE DISSIPATING. CURRENT AND RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING LIGHT N-NE WINDS N OF THE FRONT...AND LIGHT SW-W WINDS S OF THE FRONT TO 26N WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW ZONE WHERE WINDS ARE E-SE 10-15 KT. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 FT THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT IN THE SW ZONE WHERE SEAS OF 2-3 ARE OBSERVED S OF ABOUT 22N. AS FOR THE FORECAST...THE HIGH WILL REDEVELOP AS A RIDGE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS THU THROUGH SUN. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE...OR POSSIBLY A TROPICAL LOW...IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT AND INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN. THIS FEATURE WILL AFFECT WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS DURING THE END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE TROPICS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS THROUGHOUT WILL VARY VERY LITTLE THROUGH SUN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS NEAR SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT FORM OVER THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... LATEST ASCAT DATA FROM 1428 UTC THIS MORNING ALONG WITH OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS IS DUE TO WEAKENING ATLC HIGH PRES ALLOWING FOR THE PRES GRADIENT TO SLACKEN. SEAS THROUGHOUT ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE...EXCEPT IN THE SW ZONE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE HIGHER SEAS...IN THE RANGE OF 6-7 FT...ARE OCCURRING. THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE CARIBBEAN IS A RATHER VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 67W/68W MOVING W AT 20 KT. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1422 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT N OF 15N E OF THE WAVE. BUOY 42060 AT 16N64W IS REVEALING COMBINED SEAS OF 9 FT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED CLOUDINESS COVERING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN N OF 14N E OF 72W WITH EMBEDDED DEEP CONVECTION AS ALSO SEEN ON NWS RADAR FROM SAN JUAN ALL DUE TO THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. THE GLOBAL MODELS FROM THE 12 UTC RUN THIS MORNING ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE INITIAL STRENGTH OF THESE WINDS AS THE WAVE TRACKS TO THE WNW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BIG UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE IF AND AT WHAT TIME DOES LOW PRES FORM ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. THE NCEP MODELS FROM 12 UTC THIS MORNING ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRES FORMS ALONG THE WAVE WHEN IT ENTERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THU NEAR 80W/81W. THE NOGAPS MODEL SHOWS LOW PRES FORMING OVER THE WESTERN SECTION OF EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS IT MOVES PAST 75W. BASED ON THE FACT THAT THE WAVE IS MOVING AT A FAST PACE FOR THE TIME BEING... I WOULD EXPECT LOW PRES TO FORM ON IT ONCE IT SLOWS DOWN BEFORE ENTERING THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON THU AS IT IS PRESENTLY CAUGHT UNDER A FAST UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW PATTERN. SO AM INCLINED TO LEAN TOWARDS CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE ON EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 72W WED MORNING...NEAR 81W THU WITH POSSIBLE LOW...THEN TO NEAR 84W FRI AFTERNOON...AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE SAT INTO SUN. TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE GRADUALLY MOVING W OF THE ZONE IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE. AN ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 13 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED NE-E 20 KT WINDS N OF 15N...AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS S OF 15N FROM NE-E TO 10N...AND E-SE S OF 10N WITH SPEEDS OF 5-10 KT. SEAS ARE 6-8 FT N OF 16N...AND 4-6 FT S OF 16N. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TILL SAT AT WHICH ANOTHER POSSIBLE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ZONE...AND MOVES TO FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE ZONE BY LATE SUN. THIS WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON WINDS AND SEAS AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS THAT LOW PRES MAY BE IN PLACE WITH THE WAVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE ZONE. WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 20-25 KT N OF 15N ON SAT...AND TO POSSIBLY 30 KT FOR LATE SAT INTO SUN FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTION WITH BUILDING SEAS. SOUTHWEST N ATLC... THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK RIDGE ALONG 25N E OF THE BAHAMAS...WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO NE FLORIDA. ASCAT DATA ALONG WITH BUOYS HINTED AT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT S OF 23N E OF 64W WHERE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT CREATED BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ALLOWING FOR NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT...AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE OCCURRING OFF AND ON. THESE WINDS SHOULD LAST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRI. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE E OF 75W...EXCEPT S OF 23N WHERE SEAS ARE UP TO 8 FT...AND SW OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE LOWER SEAS IN THE 1-2 FT ARE NOTED. THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD HAS THE STATIONARY FRONT DISSIPATING THROUGH WED NIGHT AS THE TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA MOVES NW AND BECOMES DIFFUSE INTO BROAD SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA WED AND WED NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SUN AS IT SHIFTS N TO 30N. WINDS MAY INCREASE OVER THE FAR SE WATERS ON SUN DUE TO THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE AND OR LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AT THAT TIME. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE