000 AGXX40 KNHC 110705 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 305 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1014 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 24N83W AT 06Z WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N95W. ASCAT AND WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOW E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS IN THE W GULF AND ALSO S CENTRAL GULF WITH 5-10 KT VARIABLE WINDS ELSEWHERE. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE TEXAS COAST AND ALSO W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING/NIGHT DUE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN LOCAL EFFECTS. OTHERWISE THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT 2-4 FT SEAS OVER THE W GULF AND 1-3 FT IN THE E GULF WHERE THE LIGHTEST WINDS WILL BE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE NE TIP/COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL MOVE TO THE NW AROUND 10-15 KT MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA TODAY AND TONIGHT...REACHING THE NW CARIBBEAN AND MOVING ACROSS JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA FRI AND SAT...THEN WESTERN CUBA SUN MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO MON. NE-E 20 KT WINDS WILL EXIST IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH MAINLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-11 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE. A STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THIS LOW MAY DEVELOP INTO A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARD TO THIS WAVE AND LOW WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW AND WAVE WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN EXITING THE AREA INTO THE SW N ATLC LATE MON AS ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE AND DEVELOPING LOW APPROACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC BY MID WEEK. INTERESTS IN THE E CARIBBEAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BOTH OF THESE DISTURBANCES DURING THE NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST N ATLC... 1020 MB HIGH PRES IS POSITIONED NEAR 25N65W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A PAIR OF TROUGHS IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. THIS TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH SAT BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO FLORIDA...CUBA AND THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. THE HIGH WILL HOLD NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY SAT DRIFTING TO THE NW-N LATE SAT THROUGH MON AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE SE PORTION ON SUN. EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNLESS THE TROUGH DEEPENS MORE THAN EXPECTED. A TROPICAL WAVE AND DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRES...A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE... MAY ENTER THE SE PORTION SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON. REFER TO THE TROPICAL N ATLC SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THESE TWO FEATURES. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY