000 AGXX40 KNHC 100809 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 408 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAKENING 1013 MB SFC HIGH ACROSS SE GULF NEAR 24.5N85W WITH RIDGING NW TO UPPER TEXAS COAST. RIDGE TO GRADUALLY ROTATE CLOCKWISE INTO SE LOUISIANA THROUGH THU IN RESPONSE TO REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHARPENING CURRENT BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS FLORIDA AND ADJACENT ATLC. MODERATE RETURN FLOW TO PERSIST W OF 93W TODAY WITH SEAS 4-5 FT ACROSS TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. W TO NW FLOW ACROSS NE GULF ALLOWING FOR ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS W COAST OF FLORIDA AND CONTINUED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. SFC HIGH TO BEGIN TO SHIFT N THU NIGHT AND THEN NW OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF FRI TO PRODUCE LIGHT NLY FLOW ACROSS NE PORTIONS. MOISTURE ACROSS NE GULF AND FLORIDA TO BE FORCED S AND SE THIS EVENING THROUGH THU AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF SE U.S. COAST....AND PRODUCE A DRYING TREND. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE OF YESTERDAY LOOKS POISED TO MOVE NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN TODAY AND INTO SW GULF TONIGHT AND THU. OTHERWISE... RELATIVELY MILD WIND AND SEAS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL. SW N ATLC... BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EXTREME NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE CONTINUING TO THE E...ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND BERMUDA...AND TO THE W ACROSS E CENTRAL GULF. THIS PATTERN TO PRODUCE TWO MORE DAYS OF VERY ACTIVE DIURNAL CNVTN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CNVTN MOVING NE ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS. WEAK SFC HIGH CONTINUES JUST E OF AREA NEAR 24N64W THIS MORNING AND COMBINED WITH PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE ERN U.S. IS PRODUCING MODERATE SW TO W FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE N OF 27N. EVENING SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED SW WINDS 15-20 KT AND HIGHER IN CNVTN FROM FLORIDA NE TO SE OF OUTER BANKS. S OF THE RIDGE ESE TRADES REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE AT 15 KT OR LESS EXCEPT FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT ALONG N COASTS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE COMBINATION OF SAL ACROSS THE TOP OF LAST TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA E OF 74-75W AND ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO ERN CUBA. THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD TODAY BEFORE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SE U.S. ATTM SWEEPS E INTO W ATLC AND ACTS TO SHARPEN LLVL TROUGHING ACROSS FLORIDA AND OFF SE COAST OF U.S. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF SE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO FAR NW WATERS TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED FORCING TO INDUCE VERY ACTIVE WEATHER OVER NW WATERS W OF 74W SHIFTING NE THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST RUNS OF GFS SPIN UP A LOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND MOVE IT NE WITH 20-25 KT OF SW WIND IN SE QUAD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU INCREASING TO 20-30 KT THU AS LOW CROSSES 31N INTO THE NW ATLC WATERS. UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW A LLVL PERTURBATION BUT NO SFC LOW AND HAVE OPTED NOT TO GO WITH THE GFS SOLUTION...AND MAINTAIN WEAK TROUGHING FROM SE FLORIDA NE INTO NW ATLC. SFC HIGH TO SHIFT NW FRI AND PRODUCE A MORE SELY FLOW S AND SW OF RIDGE...YIELDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS W BAHAMAS AND INTO STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... TUTT AXIS CONTINUES SW THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH BELIZE WITH NE TO SW RIDGE TO THE SE OF IT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW CARIB. TROPICAL WAVE AND SOMEWHAT COMPLEX LLVL PATTERN MOVING ACROSS LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO ERN CARIB ATTM...WITH TRAILING WEAK LLVL SWIRL OF YDA STILL WEAKLY CONNECTED TO E ATLC MONSOON TROUGH AND TO WAVE...BEING STRETCHED AND NW TO SE. THIS LLVL FEATURE CROSSING BUOYS E OF THE ISLANDS ATTM. LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL S AND SW OF THIS TROUGH...WITH MODERATE NE TO E TRADES TO THE N OF 14.5N. FRESH TRADES DEPICTED BY EVENING SCATTEROMETER PASSES ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIB S OF 15N AND LIGHT TO MODERATE ELSEWHERE. A CONVERGENCE LINE HAS SUNK S ACROSS THE NE CARIB PAST 24 HOURS AND LINGERS THERE...AND IS INTERACTING WITH APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ACTIVE WEATHER IN A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE ACROSS THE E CARIB TODAY AND WILL LIKELY SLIDE WNW ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TONIGHT THROUGH THU IN RESPONSE TO VEERING STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. TRADES TO DIMINISH FURTHER ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIB TONIGHT AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE AND THEN REBOUND FRI AS HIGH SHIFTS NW AND RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY BEHIND TROPICAL WAVE. LOOKING AHEAD...TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING 30W OVERNIGHT IS GOING TO BE GRADUALLY STRETCHED WITH TUTT AXIS TO ITS NW AND ANCHORING TO MONSOON TROUGH...WITH MAIN ENERGY TO PASS N OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE SAT-SUN. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION OF A WAVE RELATED VORTEX FRI AS IS APPROACHES THE AREA BUT LOOKS AS THROUGH IT WILL REMAINS IN A SELY STEERING FLOW THEN. FRESH WINDS AND SEAS 8 FT AND GREATER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS N PORTION OF THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ATLC NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. SW NORTH ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING