000 AGXX40 KNHC 090811 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 410 AM EDT TUE AUG 09 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SFC HIGH ACROSS SE GULF WITH RIDGING NW TO UPPER TEXAS-SW LOUISIANA COASTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED EVENING BEFORE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT NW IN RESPONSE TO REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHARPENING CURRENT BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS FLORIDA AND ADJACENT ATLC. MODERATE RETURN FLOW TO PERSIST W OF 93W THROUGH WED WITH SEAS 4-5 FT ACROSS TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. W TO NW FLOW ACROSS NE GULF ALLOWING FOR ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS W COAST OF FLORIDA AND CONTINUED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. SFC HIGH TO SHIFT N WED NIGHT AND THEN NW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THU TO PRODUCE A MORE NNW FLOW ACROSS NE PORTIONS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVES SET UP TO ADVECT NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND INTO THE SW GULF NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OTHERWISE... RELATIVELY MILD WIND AND SEAS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SW N ATLC... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EXTREME NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE TO THE E...ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND BERMUDA. THIS YIELDING ACTIVE DIURNAL CNVTN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED CNVTN MOVING NE ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS. PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE ERN U.S. ALLOWING FOR FREQUENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE E OFF THE ERN SEABOARD AND MAINTAINING SW TO W LLVL FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF SW ATLC RIDGE. LATE EVENING ASCAT PASSES SHOWED WSW WINDS AROUND 20 KT N OF 28.5N FROM THE FLORIDA COAST TO LIKELY 58W OR SO...WITH PORTIONS OF THE REMNANTS OF EMILY SWEEPING EWD JUST N OF THE LOCAL AREA...WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND DEEP CNVTN IN SRN SEMICIRCLE. THIS LONG FETCH PRODUCING SEAS 6-8 FT N OF 28N AND E OF 75W WITH SEAS 9 FT AND GREATER WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM S AND SW OF THE REMNANTS OF EMILY. S OF THE RIDGE...THE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY AND MAX TRADES OUTSIDE THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 15 KT ARE FOUND FROM N OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS. THE COMBINATION OF SAL ACROSS THE TOP OF LAST TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE ERN CARIBBEAN AND MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ARE PRODUCING VERY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA E OF 72W AND INTO THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH EARLY WED BEFORE LLVL TROUGHING BEGINS TO SHARPEN ACROSS FLORIDA AND OFF E COAST OF U.S. WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NW WATERS. E OF THE BAHAMAS WINDS WILL VEER MORE SE AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS E TO NEAR 62W. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CARIB WAS ELONGATED WSW TO ENE AS IT ENTERED CARIBBEAN A FEW DAYS AGO AND IS VERY DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY ATTM...AND HAVE THUS DROPPED IT FROM MY PROGS NEXT FEW DAYS. SW ATL RIDGE HAS NOSED INTO THE GREATER ANTILLES AND YIELDING A SELY STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE NW CARIB THAT WILL FRACTURE THIS WAVE WITH SOME ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVING INTO NW CARIB AND THE YUCATAN NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE REMAINING ENERGY BECOME INVOLVED IN MONSOONAL CIRCULATION ACROSS EPAC AND FAR SW CARIB. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB WILL DIMINISH NEXT 48 HOURS AS SW ATLC HIGH DRIFTS NE. ELY TRADES TO TO 20 KT AND SEAS 8 FT AND HIGHER CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB BETWEEN 70W AND 78W WILL SHRINK TO S OF 14-15N NEXT FE DAYS WILL SEAS FALLING TO LESS THAN 8 FT OFFSHORE OF NW VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG ABOUT 56W HAS LEFT BEHIND A LLVL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG ABOUT 50W...WHILE AN E TO W TROUGH WEAKLY CONNECTING THIS TROPICAL WAVE AND THE PRECEDING WAVE HAS PRODUCED WEAK LLVL TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS THE ERN CARIB ATTM. THIS LOOKS SOMEWHAT STRANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND OUR PROGS...BUT APPEARS TO BE THE EVOLUTION OF THESE WAVES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. LIGHT TO MODERATE NELY ARE N OF ABOUT 15-16N...WITH VERY WEAK FLOW TO THE S OF THIS AND EXTENDS INTO THE SE CARIB. THE LOW LEFT BEHIND WILL FILL AND WEAKEN NEXT 36 HOURS WHILE THE WAVE ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS WAVE HAS REMAINED IN A RELATIVELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT OR POUCH AND WILL PRODUCE ACTIVE CONVECTION NEXT 24-26 HOURS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE CARIB. THE WEAK WRN PERIPHERY OF THE W AFRICAN MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS TO 45-50W ATTM AND COUPLES WITH A VERY WEAK ATLC RIDGE...IS YIELDING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES AND MODEST SEAS TO 6 FT AND LOWER ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH LARGE TROPICAL WAVE OFF AFRICA EXPECTED TO CROSS 55W SAT IN A VERY WEAKENED STATE. FRESH TRADES TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL CARIB LATE THU AND FRI AS SW ATLC HIGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY W TO ALONG 68W. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. SW NORTH ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING