000 AGXX40 KNHC 080807 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 407 AM EDT MON AUG 08 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO WITH MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING NE INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WITH UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER NRN FLORIDA WITH RIDGE SW TO SRN MEXICO. UPPER LOW FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE TROUGH REMAINS STRETCHED FROM SE LOUISIANA SW ACROSS EXTREME NW GULF AND INTO NRN MEXICO. THIS TO LEAVE GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ACROSS MOST OF WEST HALF OF THE BASIN...WITH MODESTLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE NE PORTION...WHERE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE WLYS ACROSS N AMERICA SWEEP E-SE ACROSS THE SE U.S. AT LOW LEVELS...WEAK RIDGE REMAINS OVER SE HALF OF THE GULF WITH RIDGE ALONG 26N/27N INTO IN THE NW GULF. THE RIDGE WILL REALIGN SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND INTO FAR SE TEXAS/SW LOUISIANA NEXT FEW DAYS AND ALLOW 15-20 KT RETURN FLOW TO SET UP W OF 94W THROUGH THU. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND MILD SEAS TO GENERALLY PERSIST WITH DIURNAL INFLUENCES INCREASING TYPICAL LATE AFTERNOON WINDS ALONG YUCATAN COAST. WLY WINDS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT OVER NE AND N CENTRAL GULF N OF 28N TUE INTO WED AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WELL N OF TIGHTENS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND HIGH PRES OVER THE SE GULF. HIGH TO SHIFT NW TO E CENTRAL GULF LATE THU-FRI AS THE TROUGH MOVES E INTO THE ATLC...AND RELAX PRES GRADIENT ACROSS W PORTIONS OF BASIN. SW NORTH ATLC... REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY HAVE EXITED TO AREA TO THE N TONIGHT...WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING SW TO SE FLORIDA...WHERE AMPLE LLVL MOISTURE CONTINUES TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER TO BE NUDGED E OFF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WATERS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS NEXT SHORTWAVE SWEEPS ACROSS SE U.S. AND NRN FLORIDA. HOWEVER...MODELS MAINTAIN LINGERING WEAKNESS FROM NW BAHAMAS NE TO NEAR BERMUDA THROUGH MID WEEK AND WILL BE MEANDERING ZONE OF ACTIVE WEATHER. THIS TO NUDGE SURFACE HIGH NEAR 24.5N64W SLIGHTLY SE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WEAKEN IT SLIGHTLY...AND TO HAVE REPERCUSSIONS WITH WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT ACROSS GREATER ANTILLES AND CARIB. SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING W THROUGH STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THU...WITH SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE NW ATLC. SWLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF NW PORTION OF AREA TO SHIFT ENE NEXT 24 HOURS TO PRODUCE W TO SW FLOW NEAR 20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN WATERS N OF 28N THROUGH LATE WED BEFORE RIDGE BEGINS TO DRIFT N LATE THU AND FRI. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ATTM TO MOVE NW INTO SE PORTIONS LATE WED INTO THU. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASSES MISSED THE CENTRAL CARIB WHERE WINDS ARE TYPICALLY STRONGEST...BUT SUGGEST GRADUALLY WEAKENING FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH 20 KT TRADES GENERALLY BETWEEN 70W AND 80W AND BUOY 42058 FLUCTUATING AT 8-9 FT. PRES GRADIENT TO WEAKEN FURTHER NEXT FEW DAYS AS MENTIONED ABOVE AND GRADUALLY CONFINE 20 KT TRADES TO S CENTRAL CARIB ACROSS THE A-B-C'S AND COLOMBIA. TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE ERN CARIB HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO DEFINE AS IT HAS MOVED INTO A REGION OF GENERAL RIDGING. MID LEVEL PERTURBATION THAT EXITED AFRICA JUST AHEAD OF THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO RACE WWD AND WAS FIRING DEEP CNVTN ACROSS FAR SW CARIB AND ACROSS COSTA RICA AND INTO EPAC OVERNIGHT...WHILE WAVE AXIS SOMEWHERE NEAR PUERTO RICO SSW. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE TO MOVE W TO WNW ACROSS NRN CORRIDOR OF BASIN NEXT 48 HOURS WITH FAIR WX TO GENERALLY PREVAIL S PORTIONS. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG ABOUT 51W ATTM WITH FULLY EXPOSED LLVL CLOUD SWIRL BEING LEFT BEHIND NEAR 13N48W. A LLVL WEAKNESS PERSISTS BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND THE E CARIB WAVE YIELDING AN E TO W TROUGH AXIS FROM LLVL SWIRL WNW TO NEAR GUADELOUPE...WITH BUOYS 41101 AND 41040 GOING WLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND NOW REMAIN LIGHT AND PART OF ELONGATED TROUGH. MODERATE NELY TRADES WILL OCCUR N OF THIS TROUGH WHILE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW WILL PREVAIL TO THE S OF IT AS THE TROPICAL WAVE AND LEFT BEHIND LOW MOVE SOMEWHAT IN TANDEM WWD...AND ENTER THE E CARIB EARLY WED. LARGE AREA OF SAL AND STABLE AIR FOLLOWS THIS WAVE ACROSS THE ATLC. THIS SUGGEST THE ATLC IS BECOMING PRIMED FOR CAPE VERDE SEASON. MODERATE TRADES TO BUILD INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE WED INTO THU BEHIND TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS ERN CARIB...WITH WINDS AT LESS THAN 20 KT. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. SW NORTH ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING