000 AGXX40 KNHC 071849 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT SUN AUG 07 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA FORECAST TO MOVE W NEXT FEW DAYS INLAND ACROSS MEXICO AND SRN TEXAS THROUGH TUE. THIS TO LEAVE GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE BASIN...WITH MODESTLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE NE PORTION WHERE A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL PASS TO THE N. AT LOW LEVELS...WEAK RIDGE REMAINS OVER SE HALF OF THE GULF WITH RIDGE ALONG 26N/27N INTO IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY REALIGN NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF AS ATLC TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY MOVES NE AWAY FROM FLORIDA. LIGHT WINDS AND MILD SEAS TO GENERALLY PERSIST TODAY THROUGH MON WITH DIURNAL INFLUENCES INCREASING TYPICAL LATE AFTERNOON WINDS ALONG YUCATAN COAST. AN INCREASED PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGHING OVER MEXICO/TEXAS AND THE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL INDUCE FRESH S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING OVER MEXICO SHIFTS W LATER TUE. WLY WINDS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF N OF 28N TUE INTO WED AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WELL N OF TIGHTENS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND DEVELOPING HIGH PRES OVER THE SE GULF. HIGH SHIFTS NW THU AS THE TROUGH MOVES E INTO THE ATLC. SW NORTH ATLC... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY NEAR 30.1N 76.0W 1011 MB AT 1500 UTC AUG 07 MOVING NE OR 035 DEG AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF EMILY IS EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY SHEARED INTO THE SW QUADRANT BY 20-25 KT N-NE SHEAR. EMILY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NE AS IT MOVES JUST N OF THE AREA TO NEAR 31.6N 74.1W THIS EVENING AND THEN BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AS IT TURNS MORE E-NE MON. GFS FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GFS BASE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST. ATLC RIDGE WILL NUDGE UNDERNEATH THE EXITING EMILY...WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS PASSING OFF THE MID ATLC U.S. COAST INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER N WATERS WHERE FRESH SW TO W WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED. THE GFS BECOMES A SLIGHT OUTLIER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGHING JUST OFF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST BY LATE WED/THU. THE ECMWF WEAKER 07/00Z ECMWF...WHICH APPEARS TO BE A BLEND OF THE FASTER/WEAKER UKMET AND THE GFS...WAS PREFERRED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A RESULT. THE WEAKENED AND SOUTHWARD SHIFTED RIDGE HAS DIMINISHED EASTERLY TRADE WINDS S OF 22N E OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH ONLY THE AREA IMMEDIATELY N OF HISPANIOLA EXPECTED TO SEE FRESH TRADES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... THE 1414 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS FRESH WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SHIPS VQHO7 NEAR 13N68W AND PBFM NEAR 12N72W REPORTING STRONG WINDS CLOSER TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. PRES GRADIENT YIELDING THESE WINDS TO DECREASE NEXT 48 HOURS AS ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS AND EMILY REMNANTS LIFT NE. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN. TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 64W WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN CARIB WILL MOVE WESTWARD TO S OF HISPANIOLA BY MON EVENING. UPPER CYCLONE MOVING W ACROSS HISPANIOLA ATTM PROVIDING MODESTLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. 30-35 KT JET ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THIS WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE NE CARIB AND ADJACENT ATLC AND WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND HELP TO IGNITE DEEP CNVTN. THIS MID TROPOSPHERIC JET ALONG THE EDGE OF BROAD SWATH OF SAL N OF 20N WILL PROVIDE ENVIRONMENT FOR SQUALLS AND GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IN CNVTN. WIND AND SEAS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH AND BEHIND THIS WAVE AS MODELS DEPICT A WEAKNESS TRAILING THIS WAVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. SEAS ACROSS CARIB EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO MAX OF 8 FT TUE. NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO TROPICAL N ATLC TUE WITH LITTLE FANFARE...MOVING INTO THE CARIBBEAN LATE WED. A THIRD WAVE IS CURRENTLY ALONG 21N OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL LOW ON ITS SOUTHERN EDGE THAT HAS SINCE OPENED UP. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT A PORTION OF THE VORT ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL BE PICKED UP BY THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WED/THU. THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM MAY SLOW THE WESTWARD PROGRESS OF THE WAVE A BIT AS IT TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE SLOWER AND LESS CONSOLIDATED ECMWF SOLUTION IS FAVORED HERE OVER THE GFS. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. SW NORTH ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER/STRIPLING