000 AGXX40 KNHC 070802 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 402 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER CYCLONE OVER S CENTRAL MEXICO FORECAST TO MOVE W NEXT FEW DAYS AND SHIFT ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING NE INTO N CENTRAL GULF W TO NW AND INLAND ACROSS MEXICO AND SRN TEXAS THROUGH MON EVENING. THIS TO LEAVE GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH MODESTLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE NE. AT LOW LEVELS...WEAK RIDGE 1016 MB HIGH REMAINS OVER E CENTRAL GULF WITH RIDGE ALONG 26N/27N INTO TEXAS COAST WILL REALIGN SOMEWHAT NEXT 24 HOURS AS REMNANTS OF EMILY LIFT OUT TO NE AND AWAY FROM FLORIDA...AND GULF HIGH SHIFTS SE TO OFFSHORE OF NW CUBA...WHERE IT WILL RESIDE THROUGH WED BEFORE SHIFTING NNW THU TO NEAR ITS CURRENT LOCATION. LIGHT WINDS AND MILD SEAS TO GENERALLY PERSIST TODAY WITH DIURNAL INFLUENCES INCREASING WINDS ALONG UPPER MEXICAN AND TEXAS COASTS TO 15-20 KT RANGE AS WELL AS SIMILAR TYPICAL LATE AFTERNOON WINDS ALONG YUCATAN COAST. WLY WINDS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KT ACROSS NE GULF MON AND TUE WITH S TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MUCH OF THE NW W OF 95W. SW NORTH ATLC... REMNANTS OF T.S. EMILY HAVE REGENERATED A SURFACE CIRCULATION JUST N OF THE NW BAHAMAS PAST 8 HOURS BUT HAS YET TO SHOW SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT IMPROVED ORGANIZATION INTO A NEW T.S. SYSTEM REMAINS ELONGATED SW TO NE...WITH BEST CNVTN PERSISTING TO SW OF SURFACE CENTER. IT HAS BEEN AMAZING TO SEE SQUALLS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES STILL BEING GENERATED AND MOVING OFF TO THE N AND NE AND BEYOND 30N...SUGGESTING PRESENCE OF DRY AIR AND LIKELY SAL REMAINING AROUND PERIPHERY OF BROAD CIRCULATION. T.D. EMILY FORECAST TO MOVE NNE THIS MORNING AND THEN MORE NE AND ACCELERATE TONIGHT AND EXIT THE WATERS TO THE N OF 31N. ATLC RIDGE TO NUDGE UNDERNEATH THE EXITING EMILY...BUT WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKENED FORM. THIS WEAK GRADIENT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FRESH TRADES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT S OF 23N THROUGH THE BAHAMAS TO BAHAMA BANK...WHILE SW TO WLY FLOW 20 KT AND GREATER TO SPREAD ACROSS THE N OF THE ATLC RIDGE...ACCOMPANYING EMILY TODAY TOWARDS THE NE AND THEN ACROSS THE TOP OF ATLC RIDGE FROM N OF 28N E OF 77W BY MON AFTERNOON. SEAS 8-10 FT WILL BUILD WITH THIS SHIFTING AND EXPANDING SW FETCH NEXT 36-48 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... FRESH TO STRONG ELY TRADES DEPICTED TONIGHT BY RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES W OF 65W THROUGH CENTRAL CARIB...WITH 25-30 KT SUGGESTED ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COASTAL WATERS. PRES GRADIENT YIELDING THESE WINDS TO DECREASE NEXT 48 HOURS AS ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS AND EMILY REMNANTS LIFT NE...AND WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN. TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ALREADY INTO SE CARIB WILL MOVE W TO S OF HISPANIOLA BY MON EVENING. UPPER CYCLONE MOVING W ACROSS HISPANIOLA ATTM PROVIDING MODESTLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. 30-35 KT JET ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NE CARIB AND ADJACENT ATLC TODAY AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND HELP TO IGNITE DEEP CNVTN. THIS MID TROPOSPHERIC JET ALONG THE EDGE OF BROAD SWATH OF SAL N OF 20N WILL PROVIDE ENVIRONMENT FOR SQUALLS AND GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IN CNVTN. WIND AND SEAS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH AND BEHIND THIS WAVE AS MODELS DEPICT A WEAKNESS TRAILING THIS WAVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. SEAS ACROSS CARIB EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO MAX OF 8 FT BY LATE TUE. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE INTO TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS EARLY TUE AND INTO E CARIB EARLY WED. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. SW NORTH ATLC... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING AMZ080. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING