000 AGXX40 KNHC 061819 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK RIDGE ALONG 25N/26N COVERS ENTIRE GULF WITH TAME WIND AND SEAS PERSISTING ACROSS BASIN THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. MINOR WIND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE PROMPTS ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 24N. RIDGE REMAINS WEAK THROUGH SUN AS REMNANTS OF EMILY LIFT OUT OF SW N ATLC THEN STRENGTHENS AS IT MERGES WITH ATLC HIGH PRES EXPENDING W INTO GULF. GRADIENT WITH MEXICO THERMAL LOW PRES TROUGH TIGHTENS MON AND TUE INCREASING RETURN FLOW TO A FRESH SLY BREEZE ALONG MEXICO AND TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. SW NORTH ATLC... LOW PRES...REMNANTS OF EMILY...CONTINUE TO DRIFT N AROUND WRN PERIPHERY OF ATLC RIDGE TRAILING WEAK TROUGH SW TO CENTRAL CUBA. BEST ESTIMATE FROM RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS NEAR 26N78W. NUMEROUS STRONG TSTMS IN SQUALLS WITHIN 60 NM SW QUADRANT OF LOW PRES WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM ELSEWHERE. AS LOW PRES DRIFT N ...ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS SW ACROSS NW HALF OF BAHAMAS PROVIDING WARM MOIST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION. ADDING TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO INTENSIFY IS A MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOW WIND SHEAR. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFER IN INTENSITY...TRACK AND TIMING SOLUTIONS...FORECAST CALLS FOR LOW PRES TO MOVE CLOSER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH WITHIN 24-36 HRS. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS PRESENCE OF DRY AIR N AND W OF SYSTEM...BUT IT RETREATS AS LOW PRES DRIFT N. ATLC HIGH PRES EXPANDS S AND W AS LOW PRES MAKE ITS MOVE N. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...LEFTOVER FROM REMNANTS OF EMILY... ALONG 85W DRIFTING W EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF AREA TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH DOT NW WESTERN CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG E BREEZE WITH SEAS TO 11 FT PREVAIL E OF 80W AS ATLC HIGH PRES TRIES TO EXTEND SW BEHIND REMNANTS OF EMILY. WIND AND SEAS DIMINISH AS TROPICAL WAVE...NOW APPROACHING TROPICAL ATLC ZONE...ENTER EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND EASES PRES GRADIENT. HEALTHY UPPER LEVEL VORTEX JUST N OF BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BRING MODERATE TO STRONG DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ENHANCING SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG WAVE AXIS. TEMPORARY GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS EXPECTED NEAR CONVECTION TONIGHT AND AS WAVE ENTER EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE SUN. SECOND TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST TO APPROACH TROPICAL ATLC LATE WED WITH LESS CONVECTION AS AIR MASS BETWEEN WAVES APPEARS DRY ON SAT IMAGERY. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. SW NORTH ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES