000 AGXX40 KNHC 060814 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 414 AM EDT SAT AUG 06 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK RIDGE ALONG 25N/26N COVERS ENTIRE GULF. NEARLY CALM TO LIGHT WINDS PERSIST WITH SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN. SCATTERED VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS DOT MUCH OF THE N HALF...EMBEDDED WITHIN LLVL MOISTURE ALONG OLD TROUGH AXIS. TROUGH FORECAST TO DRIFT NW AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING THEN NEW SHORTWAVE DROPS SE INTO N GULF COASTAL ZONES SUN FOR RENEWED CONVERGENCE AND MORE DENSE SHOWER COVERAGE MAINLY MOUTH OF MS EWD INTO BIG BEND. RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD W INTO SE GULF SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS REMNANTS OF EMILY LIFT OUT OF SW N ATLC...WITH PRES GRADIENT TO INCREASE WINDS BY MON EVENING TO 15 TO 20 KT ALONG TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AND SW PORTIONS...AND TO AROUND 15 KT NE PORTIONS. SW NORTH ATLC... REMNANTS OF EMILY CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY NNW AROUND WRN PERIPHERY OF ATLC RIDGE AND HAVE BEGUN TO INTERACT WITH OLD TROUGH ACROSS SW N ATLC AND THROUGH STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING. TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NW AND ALLOW RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS NW HALF OF BAHAMAS AND COULD AID IN INCREASED CONVECTION THERE. AN 0204 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SFC INVERTED TROUGH FROM JUST W OF ANDROS ISLANDS SSW ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY FROM MIA SUGGEST A LLVL CENTER MAY BE FORMING OVER THE N HALF OF ANDROS ISLANDS...WHILE STLT IMAGERY SUGGESTS A MID LEVEL CENTER JUST E OF THE ISLAND. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY SHIFT AN ELONGATED MID LEVEL VORT LOBE NNW ACROSS BAHAMAS TODAY AND THEN LIFT IT OUT OVER NEXT 24-36 HOURS AT VARYING TIMES...WITH GFS FASTEST...FOLLOWED BY ECMWF AND UKMET THE SLOWEST. HAVE TRIED TO TAKE AN CONSENSUS OF GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING A SURFACE LOW PASSING BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON THEN TURNING MORE N TONIGHT AND THEN NE ON SUN. GRADIENT ON E SIDE OF ANY SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN CNVTN. RECENT STLT IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR...LIKELY SAL...WELL TO THE N AND NE OF THE BROAD REMNANTS OF EMILY...YIELDING SQUALL LINES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING N AND NNE AND BEYOND 30N. BUOY 41047 REPORTED WINDS TO GALE FORCE BRIEFLY AT AROUND 03 UTC IN SUCH A SQUALL. HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA S AND SE OF THIS FEATURE LATE SUN THROUGH MON AS EMILY FINALLY SAYS GOODBYE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... LINGERING TROUGH TRAILING OFF THE SW OF REMNANTS OF EMILY CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA SW INTO NW CARIB. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON E SIDE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CONVECTION ACROSS WATERS N OF JAMAICA INTO ERN CUBA AND LIKELY 15-20 KT OF SE TO S WINDS. THIS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER SHOULD SHIFT NW TODAY AND TONIGHT. FRESH E TO ENE TRADES PREVAIL E OF 76W PER 0200 UTC ASCAT PASS...WITH SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. FRESH TRADES WILL SPREAD W TO 80W LATER TODAY AS EMILY REMNANTS LIFT N TO NW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SHIFTS W AS WELL. EMILY REMNANTS EXPECTED TO MOVE N THEN NE SUN AND SUN NIGHT...AND EXIT THE REGION N OF 30N...ALLOWING HIGH PRES TO BUILD W INTO SE GULF AND TO LESSER EXTENT W PORTIONS OF CARIB...WHERE WINDS RETURN TO ELY AND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KT GULF OF HONDURAS. VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OFF NE CARIB SHIFTING W AND PROVIDING BROAD SCALE LIFT TO ITS SE AS PREVIOUSLY DRY TROPICAL WAVE NOW HAS BECOME ACTIVE ENTERING THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. WAVE IS BROAD AND ELONGATED WITH BEST MOISTURE IN ITCZ AND BEHIND IT. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE W ACROSS WINDWARDS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH ACTIVE WEATHER SHIFTING W AND NW WITH IT. FRESH ENE WINDS AND SEAS 6 TO 8 FT AHEAD OF WAVE WILL DIMINISH BEHIND WAVE AS PRES GRADIENT RELAXES SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NEARING 40W. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. SW NORTH ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING