000 AGXX40 KNHC 050753 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 355 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE GULF WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST. SHIP...BUOY AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE CALM TO LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 1 TO 2 FT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF. SEAS TO 3 FT OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN GULF AND NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE POSSIBLE. THE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SAT THEN WILL LIKELY REORGANIZE TO THE SE LATE SAT AND SUN AND REMNANTS OF EMILY LIFT OUT OF THE NW BAHAMAS AND ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD UNDERNEATH AND INTO GULF. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND CALM SEAS ARE EXPECTED. SW NORTH ATLC... SURFACE RIDGE FROM CENTRAL ATLC W-SW TO 27N65W THEN W-NW TO N FLORIDA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SAT AS FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE NW ATLC SHIFTS SE AND INTO FAR NE PORTIONS OF AREA SAT NIGHT. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WILL LIFT N-NW ACROSS BAHAMAS IN THE FORM OF A SHARP INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH SAT THEN BEGIN TO RECURVE AROUND PERIPHERY OF ATLC RIDGE SUN AND MON AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE E COAST OF U.S. CURRENTLY...A LLVL TO SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS FROM NEAR JAMAICA NE ACROSS ERN CUBA AND THEN N INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W. THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OF EMILY HAS BECOME STRETCHED N-S ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND A NEW MID LEVEL CENTER APPEARS EVIDENT IN STLT IMAGERY THIS MORNING NEAR JUST S OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY LIFT MID LEVEL VORT N AND DEVELOP SOME TYPE OF LLVL CIRCULATION ON N OR NE END OF SURFACE TROUGH THAT REMAINS FARTHER W. THE POSITION OF THE ATLC HIGH WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT GRADIENT ON THE E SIDE OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND THUS 20-25 KT S TO SE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH ATLC WATERS JUST E OF BAHAMAS NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ANY IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF A SURFACE LOW TO YIELD 30 KT...OR MORE. ALL INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND COASTAL FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE REMNANTS OF EMILY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG SE TO S WINDS AND SEAS 6-9 FT AND POSSIBLY WILL SHIFT NW ON E SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH SQUALLS AND TSTMS. AN 0226 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT SE WINDS FROM N OF HISPANIOLA TO 24N. OTHERWISE...ATLC RIDGE WILL REORGANIZE WITH NEW HIGH PINCHING OFF S OF BERMUDA NEAR 26N BY LATE SUN WITH S TO SW FLOW FOLLOWING THE REMNANTS OF EMILY INTO THE NW ATLC WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... REMNANTS OF EMILY HAVE MOSTLY LIFTED N ACROSS HISPANIOLA LEAVING SE WINS 15-20 KT S OF THE DOM REP E OF BARAHONA...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE NELY FLOW FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE WWD. MOISTURE AND WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THESE REMNANTS WILL LIFT N AND CLEAR THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR ERN CUBA. FRESH ELY TRADES WILL OTHERWISE DOMINATE THE S CENTRAL CARIB LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ATLC RIDGE REORGANIZES...WITH E TO SE TRADES BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE W HALF OF CARIB TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH ENE TRADES PRESENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WITH SEAS 6-8 FT. A BROAD AND RELATIVELY DRY AND INACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE 40'S WILL MOVE W AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS SAT NIGHT...WITH ENE WINDS NEAR 20 KT AND SEAS 6-8 FT AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND N OF 14N. THIS WAVE TO THEN SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION WITH PRES GRADIENT WEAKENING AROUND IT FOR A MODEST DECREASE IN WIND AND SEAS THERE MON. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. SW NORTH ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING