000
AGXX40 KNHC 021913
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
240 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2011

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH THIS 
FEATURE...LATEST ASCAT PASS COMBINED WITH SHIP AND BUOY DATA 
INDICATE CALM TO LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS 1 TO 2 FT OVER MUCH OF 
THE GULF WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF 
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD MAINTAINING THESE BENIGN CONDITIONS 
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SW NORTH ATLC...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ALONG 26N THROUGH EARLY WED 
THEN SHIFT GRADUALLY NORTHWARD TO ALONG 29N BY THU. A SURFACE 
TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA...WITH W TO NW 
WINDS TRAILING THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT 
SLOWLY E THROUGH WED BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING. LATEST 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS 
TROUGH. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. EMILY 
PREVAILS OVER THE SE PART OF THE AREA. THE SECOND HALF OF THE 
FORECAST HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY AND DEPENDS ON THE INTENSITY/TRACK 
OF T.S. EMILY. THE CURRENT FORECAST...1500 UTC...BRINGS EMILY 
ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE SW N ATLC WATERS THU...AND TRACKING 
NW TOWARD THE N BAHAMAS. 

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS TROPICAL STORM 
EMILY. AT 2 PM AST EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 64.8W MOVING W 
OR 275 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 35 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 45 KT. MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS 1007 MB. EMILY IS FORECAST 
TO MOVE W-NW ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED THEN INTO 
HISPANIOLA THU MORNING...THEN INTO THE SW N ATLC THU. THE 
STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS REMAIN OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE. 
ASIDE FROM TROPICAL STORM EMILY...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS 
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. AFTER EMILY SHIFTS N 
OF THE FORECAST AREA THU...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE EXPECTED 
TO PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF 
THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

WARNINGS...

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.
 
SW N ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
.AMZ086...TROPICAL STORM WARNING THROUGH THU MORNING N OF 15N E 
OF 71W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER AL